There’s been much talk recently about Christmas dinner becoming cheaper and the pud is no exception, with strong dried grape production in turkey pushing down prices.

Dried grapes are the most prominent cost component of a Christmas pudding, accounting for about 30% to 40% of the ingredients. Traditionally the more dried grapes used, the ­better the quality of the pud.

Dried grapes are usually split into two main groups - raisins and sultanas - and the US and Turkey are the top two producers. The US specialises in raisins production, predominantly grown in California, whereas Turkey produces both but mostly sultanas.

As the two can often be substituted for each other, they tend to share the same market. As of mid-November, the price of Turkish raisins was £1.28/kg, whereas US raisins were £1.59/kg. This is in sharp contrast with the same period last year, when Turkish raisins were 30p higher than the US price.

Turkish raisins have become much cheaper this year because dried grape production there is flourishing. The country is expected to deliver a bumper crop of 328,000 tonnes of raisins and sultanas for the 2014/15 ­season. This is an increase of more than 30% compared with last year, when the crop was damaged by cold and frosty conditions. That pushed up prices and they peaked at £2/kg in September 2013. Since then, prices have fallen by 35%.

At the same time, the drought in California has reduced US yields. Current estimates from producers put crop size down 14% year on year to 320,000 tonnes, with prices having risen by 7% month on month in November to £1.59/kg.

Despite that, raisin prices overall have declined 13% year on year.

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