Fears of a return of food price inflation next year are mounting but, for now, supermarkets are keeping it in check - with The Grocer Price Index showing an average price rise of 0.28% in October compared with the previous month. This puts inflation at 1.22% in the year to 30 October and means the average supermarket product, which cost £3 a year ago, is now £3.03.

The mults worked particularly hard to lower prices in the last month. Sainsbury’s, with a 1.82% hike, was the only supermarket to show inflation on its shelves in October. Inflation was also highest at Sainsbury’s on a year-on-year basis, with prices rising 4.51% on average, from £3.09 to £3.23.

This makes for an interesting contrast with Waitrose, which has focused on price this year with the extension of its branded price match. Although starting from the highest base (£3.23), Waitrose showed very low inflation among the commonly stocked products monitored by the GPI. Price rose just 0.69% over the year to finish at an average of £3.24 - tantalisingly close to Sainsbury’s.

Price of plaice plummets on wholesale markets

Buyers will find comfort in seeing wholesale prices for some of the UK’s most popular fish species significantly below 2011 levels.

Although haddock has risen by 19.5% over the past month due to seasonality issues, it remains nearly 30% cheaper than this time last year after increased EU quotas boosted supply. Cod prices are also down year-on-year, coming in 6.7% lower than a year ago.

Meanwhile, plaice is fast becoming more affordable on the back of plentiful North Sea stocks, reported to be almost at a level last seen in the 1980s. And sardine prices are down 23.4% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year as the market returns to normal after very high summer demand.

At the other end of the market, coldwater prawns remain far more expensive as a result of low global supplies. At £2,969/t, they are 66.2% dearer than this time last year, although prices have eased by 6.1% over the past month.

Morrisons was the only supermarket to reduce its prices over the year, by 3.94%. Price drops in the baby category were particularly dramatic, down 19.68% on 12 months ago. Morrisons’ deflation was also driven by the deli, fruit & veg and health & beauty categories. The result is Morrisons unit price moving from an above-average £3.13 to a slightly below average £3.01.

Tesco’s performance was closest to the average across the big four, with annual inflation of 1.23% and the average product now priced £3.09.

At Asda, inflation was an above-average 2.16%. The EDLP retailer remained cheapest, although its average price edged towards the other mults, from £2.90 to £2.96.

Across all retailers, annual inflation continued to vary significantly between categories. meat, fish and poultry rose by 8.40% over the year, frozen food by 8.65% and bakery 6.18%. Only two categories out of the 15 monitored got cheaper over the year, with baby falling 3.06% and deli items 7.62%.

The biggest monthly change was frozen food, which jumped up 2.88% having fallen since June. The other big monthly hikes were in baby, with prices 2.83% higher than September, dairy (1.72%) and bakery (1.69%). As The Grocer revealed last week, the average price of an 800g loaf of bread has risen 7p in the past three months.

The only month-on-month declines were deli (down 0.89%), fruit & veg (down 0.58%) and dry grocery (down 0.22%). All other categories rose by fractions of a per cent - but the supermarkets are unlikely to be able to keep such a tight lid on inflation for much longer.

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