Amid fears of a post-Brexit spike in food prices, there is some good news: underlying agricultural commodity prices are expected to remain relatively low over the next decade.
Global prices for all major crops, livestock and fish products all fell in 2015, signalling the end of an “era of high prices” for agricultural commodities, according to the recent OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook for 2016-2025.
Meat prices fell after reaching record highs in 2014, while dairy product prices continued on a downward curve that began in 2013. Crop prices fell further from 2012 peaks.
Supply growth, weakening demand due to an economic slowdown, lower oil prices and “further accumulation of already abundant stocks,” are the major factors driving lower prices, the report notes.
And with supply and demand set to remain balanced, agricultural commodity prices should remain “relatively flat” over the next decade, it predicts.
Global demand for food is to “slow progressively”, says the report, with population growth declining and income growth in emerging economies projected to be weaker. Most of the increase in demand will be met by productivity gains through yield improvements, meaning only “modest” changes to crop area and livestock herds.
However, as incomes improve there will be further growth in demand for meat, fish and poultry and thus feed grains - causing these commodities to increase in price relative to food staples such as rice and wheat.
With so many political and environmental uncertainties, there is also a “strong chance” of at least one agricultural commodity suffering a “severe price swing” within the next 10 years, the report warns. Oil prices, economic growth, weather events and agricultural policies could all have an impact on global prices, it says.
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