Supermarket deflation hit a new record level last month as price cuts and low oil prices continued to drive industry-wide deflation.
The Grocer Price Index, which measures the price of more than 60,000 SKUs across the big four using data from Brand View, fell to -2.9% year on year in the month to 1 March 2016, exceeding the previous record of -2.8% seen in the previous month. This suggests the deflationary picture, far from easing after almost two years of falling prices, is actually accelerating.
Notably, this latest drop came on the back of a comparative period for the month to 1 March 2015, when prices were already falling by 2.2% year on year. This means supermarket prices are currently down by 5% over the two-year period since the month to 1 March 2014.
The GPI has been now in negative territory for every month since the month to 1 June 2014.
Once again, prices across all of the big four are in deflation, but there is significant movement in the levels of annual price cuts from supermarket to supermarket compared with last month.
Tesco has overtaken Morrisons as the biggest cutter, with its prices down 3.2% year on year. Price falls at Morrisons, which had been at 5.2% in the month to 1 February, eased to 2.8% in the month to 1 March.
Asda had not recorded annual deflation above 2% since the month to 1 August 2014 and has been the lowest in terms of annual price cuts for every month since the month to 1 February 2015. However, this month it saw prices fall by 3% year on year compared with a 1.4% fall in the month to 1 February 2016.
Overall annual deflation was seen in each of the GPI’s 15 categories, led by alcohol (-4%), meat, fish & poultry (-3.9%) and bakery (-3.7%). The overall month-on-month price fall of 0.9% was the highest since the month to 1 October 2015.
Asda saw the biggest month-on-month price cuts, with prices at the Leeds-based supermarket falling by 2.2% since the month to 1 February 2016. Last month. Asda pledged to spend an extra £500m on slashing prices, in addition to the £1bn previously committed in its five-year plan, after announcing a disastrous 5.5% fall in sales in Q4 2015.
CEO Andy Clarke said its ‘Pocket More’ initiative would make it the lowest on price on a further 1,600 lines compared with Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons and vowed there “was more to come” as it sought to “take another step in narrowing the price gap to the limited assortment discounters”.
Month-on-month price cuts at Asda were most notable in soft drinks (-7.3%), baby goods (-6.3%) and alcohol (-3.8%).
However, one key deflationary input into the market may finally be showing signs of easing - the price of oil has rallied by more than 40% since hitting a low of $27 a barrel in February to go back above $40 this week, though Brent Crude is still close to 30% down year on year.
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