The deflationary picture is yet to improve for the UK’s beleaguered supermarkets as prices remain more than 2% lower than this time last year, according to The Grocer Price Index.
Collated by Brand View from more than 60,000 SKUs, the GPI was virtually unchanged in the month to 1 September, edging back to -2.15% from -2.16% the previous month.
That is the fourth month of the past seven where deflation has been over 2% lower year on year, and is only a fraction less than the -2.53% deflation rate in the month to 1 April.
Deflation had been expected to ease in the second half as the price war first reared its head more than a year ago, and it was hoped that improved wages and consumer spending power would flow through to food shopping behaviours.
Instead, deflation has stepped up since dropping to -1.59% in the month to 1 May and remains significantly higher than the deflation of -0.56% at the same point in 2014.
Tesco was the biggest price cutter for the second time in three months, with its prices dropping -2.8% year-on-year. Morrisons saw the largest price drops in the month to 1 August, but fell to third place in this month’s GPI with -1.9%, behind Sainsbury’s at -2.2%.
Asda’s prices fell once more after two months of small rises, dropping by -1.3% in the month to 1 September. Waitrose, not included in the overall GPI figure, saw annual prices edge up by 0.3%.
Every one of the GPI’s 14 categories saw price falls during the period, led by bakery’s -4.8% price contraction, frozen at -3.2% and chilled at -3.1%.
Bakery also saw the biggest price falls on a month-on-month basis (-2.8%), though only six of the GPI’s 14 categories saw month-on-month price cuts resulting in a 0.4% increase overall, driven by a 3.1% increase in the price of soft drinks as the category came off summer discounts. All of the big four saw an increase in soft drink prices over the period.
This week Morrisons and Waitrose both issued half-year results showing more deflation-driven like-for-like sales declines.
With the deflationary environment showing little sign of easing, the multiples are relying on volume growth to drive their sales recoveries - but maintaining this momentum is hard with all the retailers pursuing the same strategy.
Supermarket volumes fell year on year for the first time since early December 2014 in the four weeks ending August 15, according to Nielsen. The -0.3% sales volume fall was driven by declines in soft drinks, frozen foods and general merchandise.
However, on a more positive note the BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor for August found food sales rose 0.3% in the three months to August, meaning the 12-month average total food growth turned positive for the first time since August 2014.
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