Farmers and millers say prospects are good for the British wheat crop - but warn there could yet be clouds on the horizon.
The news comes in the week bread brand Hovis renewed its commitment to 100% British wheat sourcing - a pledge it was forced to abandon 15 months ago following the disastrous 2012/13 wheat crop.
Experts hope for 14 to 16 million tonnes from this year’s crop compared with around 12 million over the past two years. Plantings are up year-on-year, although supply of milling wheat used by food businesses is likely to be at a similar level to recent years as much of the extra planting is feed wheat.
The relatively mild winter has helped development of the crop - though farmers may face fungal infections that would otherwise have been killed off by frost - and most key growing areas escaped the worst of the recent flooding. “Some plants will have been lost to floods, but we believe the majority will have survived,” says Alex Waugh, director general of the National Association of British & Irish Millers.
But no-one is willing to make firm predictions at this stage: the six weeks of solid rain that devastated the 2012/13 crop came just before summer harvesting. “May and June will be critical,” says Philip Darke, MD of grain storage co-operative Camgrain. “What we need is a good mix of rain and sunshine in those months.”
And concerns are growing about Black Grass - a weed that can damage wheat by competing with it for nutrients, water and light. A heavy infestation can reduce the yield from a field by a third, say experts, who also warn the weed is becoming resistant to weedkillers.
“Spraying a field can get rid of 95% of an infestation, but the 5% you don’t kill will be resistant,” said farmer John Jefferies. “And when that 5% spreads, that will all be resistant.”
Palm kernel oil popularity pushes up prices
The price of palm kernel oil in the EU has soared by nearly 50% over the past year, as a shortage of coconut oil has caused buyers to switch to palm oil as an alternative. Prices have also risen on a month-on-month basis, by 7.8%.
Coffee prices also continue to move upwards, with both robusta and arabica up month on month as a result of continuing concerns about dry, hot weather in Brazil.
Meanwhile, plastics prices in the UK are on the slide, with LDPE film down by nearly 3% over the past month.
LDPE prices have dropped because of poor demand across Europe, with buyers keeping contracted volumes to a minimum to take advantage of lower spot prices.
Prices digest
GM: Defra secretary of state Owen Paterson has backed EU plans to fast-track and streamline the approval process for genetically modified materials. The plans would allow crops to be approved on a country-by-country basis.
Seeds: The European Parliament has rejected proposals for new rules on seeds and seed marketing, claimed they would put Europe’s food security at risk. The NFU condemned the move.
Maize: Brazil has cut its forecast for this year’s maize and soy crops in light of recent hot and dry weather. Industry body Conab said maize production would now hit 75.2 million tonnes this year - 280,000 tonnes down on its earlier predictions - with soybeans down by 4.6 million tonnes to 85.4 million tonnes.
Wheat: The North American Millers Association has forecast that the US’s soft red winter wheat harvest will reach 437 million bushels this year, down from 564.9 million bushels in 2013.
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