Are sugary cakes, chocolate and Theresa May’s jam next on the Brexit hitlist?

French sugar giant Tereos has become the latest supplier to issue a hard Brexit warning to consumers, pointing out the cost of importing the white stuff could double if the UK leaves the EU with no deal – which would inevitably lead to higher prices for food and drink in supermarkets.

Environment secretary Michael Gove confirmed earlier this week the UK will impose tariffs on food imports in the event of a no-deal Brexit, and while the government has yet to share details, trade experts believe they would likely be in line with the EU’s WTO tariff schedule. That would mean an additional tariff of €419 per tonne on white sugar and €339 per tonne on raw sugar, according to Guillaume Planque, head of product management for sugar and sweetening solutions at Tereos, which is “an increase of more than 100% versus the ­current price”.

Sugar is one of many products the UK doesn’t produce enough of to meet domestic demand, and there simply isn’t the capacity or scalability in this country to meet the shortfall of sugar currently imported from the EU, Planque argues. And the cost of domestic sugar could also rise, with the absence of EU imports set to leave UK sugar supplies in the hands of just a couple of producers and processors.

Given the importance of sugar as a “foundation ingredient” for food and drink, a sudden surge in prices would be a nightmare scenario for fmcg companies and consumers. But it could also prove a blessing in disguise for the UK, which the World Health Organisation claims is the third most overweight nation in Europe.

According to a briefing published today by the Food Research Collaboration, the government should seize on Brexit as an opportunity to reduce the availability and affordability of sugar to the food and drink industry.

Its authors, Dr Ben Richardson from Warwick University and Jack Winkler, emeritus professor at London Metropolitan University, propose policy measures that go way beyond simple import tariffs.

They claim the government should impose a marketing quota – a quantitative limit on the amount of sugar that can be sold on the market – and a minimum price for sugar, as well as rethinking how farm subsidies are allocated.

Opinion: Theresa May can play fast and loose with jam but not people’s livelihoods

“Currently, Defra is trying to raise the production of sugar, while Public Health England is trying to lower its consumption. We need a “joined up” sugar policy. Adopting our proposals for new agriculture policies would create one,” says Winkler.

It’s an interesting idea – and one that is arguably no different from imposing a sugar tax on fizzy drinks. But it also, in my opinion, comes dangerously close to being draconian. Because it doesn’t just impose a financial penalty on food and drink manufacturers using excess sugar in their products, it penalises food and drink manufacturers using any sugar in their products. Which is most of them.

It also risks creating a society whereby only the wealthy can afford to indulge in the luxury of sweets and treats containing real sugar, leaving everyone else with no choice but to ingest a bucket load of artificial sweeteners that could prove even worse for our health in the long run.

I think it’s seriously unlikely the UK government would introduce such policies, given Fox et al seem determined to use Brexit as an opportunity to liberalise trade between the UK and the rest of the world, not restrict trade further.

Although ironically, that dogged determination to secure new trade deals is precisely why some MPs are so opposed to the backstop, which they argue would leave the UK locked in a customs union with the EU and unable to lower its tariff barriers as a bargaining tactic for trade deals with third countries.

And the impasse over the backstop means we are careering towards a hard Brexit – which according to Tereos would have the same impact on sugar prices, in the short term at least.

That would mean higher prices for cakes, sweets, chocolate, soft drinks, milkshakes and – oh yeah – jam. Maybe Theresa May was onto something after all.