The surprising and encouraging news in today’s trading figures from Unilever and SABMiller is the resurgence in emerging market growth.
Unilever reported that sales growth in emerging markets had climbed to 8.4% in the fourth quarter compared to 5.9% in the third quarter.
And SABMiller also reported some strong figures. Volume growth of 13% in China and 6% in Africa in the third quarter went some way to making up for disappointing performances in North America and Europe.
Unilever and SABMiller have some of the largest emerging market businesses in fmcg. Both companies earn more than half their trading profits from frontier markets like China, India and Indonesia, so they are worth following as bellwethers.
When Unilever issued its first profit warning in a decade on the back of slowing emerging markets, shares in other big global consumer goods companies took a tumble.
Today, the better growth figures have given others in the sector a boost. Diageo shares are up 1.8%, Danone shares 2% and Nestlé shares 1%.
Emerging markets are certainly more challenging than they were: economic weakness in some countries such as Indonesia and India, coupled with currency devaluations, make for tougher conditions. Competition is also fiercer than ever.
But fears of a sustained slowdown for fmcg businesses now look overstated, and emerging markets remain a land of opportunity.
Asia, in particular, will be a powerhouse for growth in the years to come. A recent Ernst & Young report predicted that emerging Asian countries will account for 25% of the consumer products market by 2017 – up from 15% in 2007.
This weekend’s headlines exclaiming China’s worst growth since 1999 should not be too much of a cause of concern. It may spell bad news for construction, but with wages rising and the ranks of the middle classes still swelling, the fmcg industry can look forward to many more years of high growth.
The challenge now will be to deliver profitable growth in emerging markets. The very wage rises that will unlock new markets for consumer brands will also drive up costs. Profitability will no longer be a secondary concern to planting the flag and growing market share.
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