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The UK toy market is a £3.4bn powerhouse, with grocers currently the third-largest retail channel behind toy specialists and online retailers.

Grocers account for 15% of those annual toy sales – totalling an impressive £516m – yet face a paradox during Q4. The last three months of the year are the golden quarter for toys, with nearly half of all toy sales occuring during this period. December alone accounts for 24% of the sector’s yearly sales.

However, grocers’ share of the market traditionally dips during this critical time, falling to just 11% in Q3 2023.

This seasonal challenge is also a golden opportunity. As Christmas footfall surges in supermarkets, grocers can capitalise on the influx to claim a larger share of the market during its most lucrative period.

Impulse buys

The toy aisles in supermarkets tell a unique story. Unlike specialists or online players, grocery toy sales are driven by impulse buys. This dynamic keeps the average selling price of toys in grocers at just £5.72 this year, less than half the market average of £14.63.

During December those average prices rise slightly to £7, yet 58% of grocer toy sales remain under £10, up from 54% last year – reflecting consumer caution around discretionary spending.

Higher-priced toys tell another tale. Products over £50 account for just 1% of grocers’ sales – compared to 19% across the market, with this segment shrinking by 22% year on year. While grocers see a modest rise in premium toy sales during Christmas (reaching an average price of £13.19 last December) they continue to miss out on a significant share of the higher-priced market.

Collectibles, however, are a standout strength for supermarkets. Accounting for one in four toy purchases compared to one in six in the broader market, collectibles – from Pokémon cards and Panini stickers to Squishmallows and Polly Pocket dolls – dominate the channel, spanning categories and driving growth. these items

Collectibles’ overall share of value sales has climbed from 11.5% in 2021 to 15.9% in 2024. But grocers are losing ground here too, with their share of collectibles falling by 2.3 percentage points as other retailers expand their offerings.

The toy story

The overall toy market in 2024 is booming, with building sets, vehicles and plush the fastest-growing categories. Building sets lead the market and dominate in grocers, representing 13.6% of all in-store toy sales.

Grocers also perform well in arts and crafts, plush, and vehicles, where they over-index on share. However, they underperform in both plush and vehicles compared to the wider market, with vehicles growing by just 1% in grocers versus 5.7% elsewhere, and plush up 0.2% versus 1.5%. Categories like games and puzzles, infant/toddler/ preschool toys, and youth electronics see even weaker sales in grocery stores.

With Christmas upon us, grocers have had a prime chance to step up their game, and with rising demand for trending categories and high footfall in-store, the opportunity to reclaim market share and boost performance is clear.

The season is ripe for grocers to deck their aisles with toys and turn them into true festive hotspots. Have they unwrapped the opportunity to shine as the go-to destination for Christmas shoppers, or have they let competitors snatch their share of the holiday magic? The ball, or rather, the bauble, is in their court.