As we reach the climax to the retail business season, the pressure to perform is mounting. In the words of Sir Alex Ferguson, it’s squeaky bum time. And speculation is rife as to whether ‘Christmas is Stuffed’ (Sunday Mirror) or we’re all set for ‘A £21bn Xmas Spree’ (Daily Mirror).

Even using the most robust data, it’s very difficult to read the market right now. We’ve seen unprecedented volume declines in some categories through the year. But perhaps the biggest challenge facing retailers and manufacturers has been the extreme fluctuations, often from week to week, and certainly from month to month.

If we take beer and lager, volumes were down 30% in June, up 15% in July, 8% in August, down 1% in September, and flat in October. But the most telling volume declines right now are in Scotland where, as we report on p5, sales were down 14% following the ban on multibuys on 1 October.

Scottish health minister Nicola Sturgeon will be cock-a-hoop, and the first read data will surely give the SNP the confidence to press ahead with further legislation, as it can point to such a demonstrable impact on consumer behaviour.

Indeed, the ramifications for the industry, across the UK, are potentially enormous. With volumes fluctuating so wildly, it’s too early to point, permanently, to a decline in consumption. But as the industry grows twitchy, perhaps the most important question this initial data raises is whether a volume decline is by definition bad news.

Over recent years, multibuys have become a seasonal norm. Since the ban, retailers in Scotland have responded with a directly correlating increase in money-off deals, but whether it’s bogof or half-price, retailers and suppliers invariably lose money on seasonal booze deals. And cross-brand multibuys do nothing to enhance brand loyalty.

If the multibuy is removed from the armoury of the retailer, and volumes do fall, a key incentive for subsidising deals is lost, which might encourage retailers to view the category in a different light. In theory, therefore, we could actually see a slightly smaller but more healthy category emerging from this. And a more healthy nation too.

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