The spectre of Brexit hung heavily over today’s AHDB Outlook conference in London, and it’s clear those campaigning to either stay in or leave the EU will have their work cut out explaining the benefits of either argument.
With speculation that an in/out vote could take place as early as June, the mood of delegates from across the agrifood sector was framed by uncertainty.
As an Irishman living in Denmark, the economist Professor Alan Matthews of Trinity College Dublin had a unique perspective on the permutations of a British withdrawal from the EU, and despite a thorough analysis of what effect it could have on the agrifood sector his speech arguably left more questions than answers. His opening gambit was a question: would the UK agrifood sector be better outside the EU?
The answer, however, was less clear.
A Brexit would lead to greater regulatory autonomy, but as he outlined alternative arrangements with the EU - ranging from the ‘Norway option’ of European Economic Area membership straight through to the ‘Turkey option’ of a customs union with the EU - the threat of higher trade costs and less control on European legislation (which would still affect a post-Brexit UK) made compelling listening.
Other points to consider post-Brexit would be the inevitable delays in forming new reciprocal trade agreements, which could disrupt supply chains, Matthews added, while food producers could become less competitive in global markets due to increased tariffs and other costs.
So, lots of food for thought for the sector and potentially very little time to consider before we all go to the polls.
But perhaps the most valid point of all came from a farmer in the audience who said very few of the Great British Public would even consider these options when choosing whether to stay in Europe.
These are the people who watch Britain’s Got Talent, he said, and know very little about the farming sector, with their opinions instead likely to be formed by the key battleground of migration - and whoever shouts the loudest on this subject might win an argument that might have ramifications for this country for generations to come.
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