Scotland decides: one day to go

Last Thursday night, with the Scottish independence debate in full bloom, the prime minister met with the grocery industry. Around the same time, Asda CEO Andy Clarke implied that prices would rise in an independent Scotland. And last night, on BBC1, Alex Salmond was livid.

“Cameron invited the big supermarkets in and asked them if they would say something hostile about Scottish independence, and Asda unfortunately did. Many others, like Tesco and Aldi, said ‘No, we don’t want to play politics’. Well done to them for resisting that sort of crude pressure from Downing Street. And the prime minister’s fingerprints were all over it. It’s demeaning for the PM to be reduced to that sort of scare tactic, desperate in a campaign that he can’t win politically, so now he tries to pressurise people to be agents of Project Fear, which has rebounded so disastrously on the No campaign.”

The Grocer is awaiting a response on how the genial Asda CEO feels about being labelled an ‘Agent of Project Fear’, particularly as he wasn’t actually at the meeting on Thursday night, but he is in good company when it comes to warning that independence may have undesirable consequences for Scotland. Some of the sharpest political and financial minds in the world (Greenspan, Kissinger, Clinton, Akabusi) have recently cast doubt on the viability of the Yes camp’s economic plans. And with the latest polls showing No back in front, Salmond’s suggestion that Better Together camp activity has “rebounded disastrously” feels wide of the mark.

Many supporters of the No camp may also feel like some sharp political manoeuvring was long overdue. Everyone shops for groceries, so the mass resonance generated by the prospect of a grocery price-hike was a basic but powerful move required to meet the buoyant Yes camp head on.

Furthermore, Salmond’s questionable rhetoric also brings the Yes camp’s own conduct sharply into focus. It’s campaign has long been blighted by scurrilous rumours of hostile, crude, demeaning, scare tactics in an attempt to pressurise those in the No camp to think again.

Buried under all that, did Salmond have a point? Was it just a scare tactic, or will prices rise? Well, no-one can say with any certainty what might happen to the price of a tin of beans in an independent Scotland, other than to be fairly confident it will remain static in the short term. Yet several CEOs, not just Clarke, have said the cost of operating in an independent Scotland would be higher than the cost of operating when weighted across the existing UK. Price hikes, therefore, however marginal, should not be ruled out.

That said, for many people in Scotland, a few pence on a tin of beans would be a small price to pay for independence.

And whatever happens to retail prices, the Scottish food and drink industry is currently booming. According to food minister Richard Lochhead, exports are up 50% since the SNP came to power in 2007 and independence will generate even more revenue. He states the case for Yes here. On the flipside, chief secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander argues equally vehemently that independence would be disastrous, so the industry should vote No.

So what will happen tomorrow when the industry joins millions of Scots at polling stations? It’s close, but it’s looking like a No. Yesterday afternoon Betfair paid out a “six-figure sum” to No gamblers, claiming its data showed the No camp had 79% of the vote. This morning, an ICM poll said the No camp had 52%. However, with over 4m people eligible to vote, that 2% looks fragile when various estimates suggest 350,000 voters remain undecided.

In short, with so many issues surrounding Scottish independence swirling up in the air, there is only one thing to say for sure. This one is going right to the wire.