Government should focus on aiding export markets and business finance, says Kevin Hawkins
"You can never plan the future by the past" opined Edmund Burke.
Indeed not, but the recent past lies heavily on all our futures. Food manufacturers and retailers are contemplating the prospects for 2011 with uncertainty and, in some cases, apprehension. As a rule of thumb, businesses that have spread their risk either by exporting to or opening stores in high-growth markets should at least hold their own.
Those which, by contrast, are heavily exposed to the UK, especially regions where the main source of employment is the public sector, are in for a hard time.
That said, the upper reaches of the market should be relatively safe, especially for those retailers and suppliers who are strong on NPD in convenience and health. Value for money will, however, strengthen its grip on consumer choice. Shoppers have been conditioned to expect a wide range of promotions and woe betide any retailer who fails to deliver them. That means even more pressure on both own-brand and branded suppliers, more of whom will throw in their lot with bigger, cash-rich rivals to cut costs.
There may still be some growth in the premium local/regional sector, but only for those products that offer good value for money. Many organic suppliers, however, could well be regretting their investment in what is turning out to be a moribund market.
Should a cash-constrained government be doing more to help? The indications are that ministers will waste their time on peripheral issues like the Grocery Adjudicator, who cannot offer anonymity and whose services will be rarely used. Similarly, country of origin labelling will spawn more headlines and initiatives but is at best a minor influence on consumer choice and likely to remain so.
Ministers should instead focus on helping UK suppliers break into new export markets. Instead of homilies on human rights, struggling suppliers need assistance in understanding local tastes, regulations and distribution channels and help in negotiating a way through whatever political and other barriers there are to new entrants. Access to finance is still a big problem for many small manufacturers. A bit more ministerial pressure on the bailed-out banks would be useful.
As the public payroll falls, will those left have the skills and experience to do their jobs? As Hamlet would say, there's the rub.
Kevin Hawkins is an independent retail consultant.
"You can never plan the future by the past" opined Edmund Burke.
Indeed not, but the recent past lies heavily on all our futures. Food manufacturers and retailers are contemplating the prospects for 2011 with uncertainty and, in some cases, apprehension. As a rule of thumb, businesses that have spread their risk either by exporting to or opening stores in high-growth markets should at least hold their own.
Those which, by contrast, are heavily exposed to the UK, especially regions where the main source of employment is the public sector, are in for a hard time.
That said, the upper reaches of the market should be relatively safe, especially for those retailers and suppliers who are strong on NPD in convenience and health. Value for money will, however, strengthen its grip on consumer choice. Shoppers have been conditioned to expect a wide range of promotions and woe betide any retailer who fails to deliver them. That means even more pressure on both own-brand and branded suppliers, more of whom will throw in their lot with bigger, cash-rich rivals to cut costs.
There may still be some growth in the premium local/regional sector, but only for those products that offer good value for money. Many organic suppliers, however, could well be regretting their investment in what is turning out to be a moribund market.
Should a cash-constrained government be doing more to help? The indications are that ministers will waste their time on peripheral issues like the Grocery Adjudicator, who cannot offer anonymity and whose services will be rarely used. Similarly, country of origin labelling will spawn more headlines and initiatives but is at best a minor influence on consumer choice and likely to remain so.
Ministers should instead focus on helping UK suppliers break into new export markets. Instead of homilies on human rights, struggling suppliers need assistance in understanding local tastes, regulations and distribution channels and help in negotiating a way through whatever political and other barriers there are to new entrants. Access to finance is still a big problem for many small manufacturers. A bit more ministerial pressure on the bailed-out banks would be useful.
As the public payroll falls, will those left have the skills and experience to do their jobs? As Hamlet would say, there's the rub.
Kevin Hawkins is an independent retail consultant.
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