The golden quarter is here, but shoppers aren’t ready to splurge

There are only 42 shopping days until Christmas, so not only do I need to start seriously thinking what present to buy my wife, but the battle to separate the festive stars from the Christmas turkeys is well and truly on.

The golden quarter, as it’s known, has become increasingly key for supermarkets. This morning’s grocery market share figures suggest this one is going to be tougher than most.

Overall sales were up 1% in the 12 weeks to 3 November, marking a slight slowdown on the equivalent rate last month, according to Kantar.

The story for the big four was even more worrying. Sainsbury’s sales were down 0.2%, Tesco down 0.6%, Asda down 1.2% while Morrisons fell 1.7%. Given these figures included Halloween and a 6% rise in pumpkin sales, it shows the challenges the UK’s biggest retailers face in grabbing not just more of the festive spend but grocery spend in general. Over the period Lidl sales were up 8.8% and Aldi up 6.7%.

The retailers’ Christmas marketing campaigns are getting into full swing and soon the big grocers will be bombarding shoppers with their set piece adverts. Kevin the carrot is back for Aldi and as always Sainsbury’s is going for the heartstrings with a big-budget, high-production-value epic.

No doubt these will all play their part in swaying some wavering shoppers to try their wares, or simply convincing regulars to stay loyal. But if today’s figures give us any clue as to how Christmas is going to be, then it suggests it’s going to be a tough one.

The main reason for this is not the appeal of the glitzy ads or the quality of the festive fayre on shelves. Last year was marked by a pre-Brexit blow-out, with shoppers deciding to splurge ahead of any economic fallout from the EU departure in March.

Then that exit date came and went, as did April and Halloween, but as all those dates passed by, the economic uncertainty and political deadlock has gnawed away at consumer confidence. Shoppers are unlikely to be that carefree this year.

There is unlikely to be any kind of clarity until after the general election on 12 December, and that’s assuming there’s a clear winner.

Not for a very long time has the run-up to what is supposed to be “the most wonderful time of the year” been clouded in such a way. I just can’t see shoppers being as relaxed with their spending as last year, and that could hit all retailers – not just the ones with the naffest ad or the dodgiest mince pies.