Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs are merely an amuse-bouche

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In Canadian supermarkets, the response to Donald Trump’s tariffs has been simple: bottles of bourbon and other US drinks have been pulled summarily from shelves. It’s an escalation straight out Trump’s playbook, with devastating consequences for US suppliers as sales don’t just drop, as with tariffs, they disappear completely.

But what about the reaction here? As the US president unveiled his ‘Liberation Day’ plans, Lib Dem leader Ed Davey called on shoppers this week to buy British.

But so far at least, apart from Tesla car sales, we’ve not seen UK consumers boycotting US consumer goods and services in meaningful numbers as they have in Canada and mainland Europe.

And it’s difficult for a protest vote to have a significant impact when so many UK fmcg are US-owned (including six of the UK’s top 10 bestselling brands). That’s no bad thing either: US-owned brands account for a lot of British jobs.

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Meanwhile, the consensus in the trade (and the City) is that UK food and drink suppliers have got off lightly when it comes to exports: shares in Diageo actually increased on news that the rate would only be 10%.

And while there’s an acceptance that sales of British cheese and Scottish salmon, as well as shortbread, confectionery and other items, will be impacted, it’s so much worse for the EU that some even view the tariff plans as an opportunity. With brilliant timing, boutique UK spirits producer Doghouse has just launched bourbon-style UK whisky distilled in London, called Debt Collector.

Of course, the flip side of this is a potential glut of products from the EU, China, NZ etc that could flood the UK market.

It’s a reminder that Liberation Day is just an amuse-bouche in the elaborate feast (or famine) that’s about to take place. Instead of announcing immediate retaliatory tariffs this week like the EU, the UK government has launched a consultation with British businesses, open until 1 May, supposedly to assess the impact of tariffs. However, some are seeing it as a delaying tactic while the government tries to agree a US trade deal.

How likely is that? And what would be the ramifications? You’ll have to wait till the next course is served (next week).