Welcome to 2030. Artificial intelligence runs 50% of government departments and the judiciary. Sixty-two per cent of cancers can be cured. Ukraine lost almost a third of its territory in 2026, curtailing its rapeseed production but protecting its wheat output. Idris Elba is the mayor of London. Obesity rates are in decline. The UK’s climate is on average 0.1 degrees higher. HS2 isn’t finished.
US tariffs led to the unexpected super-premiumisation of ‘Britfood’ stateside. The UK and Europe signed an unprecedented trade agreement with China, which is now the biggest consumer of Scottish food and drink in the world. 2025’s new world order unexpectedly ignited policy that put food security at the heart of the Britain’s climate and health agenda.
This could be the future in five years’ time, based on the decisions we make today. These choices come at a time of turmoil. British food producers face growing labour costs and export complexity. Whether it’s farmers’ Inheritance Tax, climate or VAT tariffs, the mise-en-scène would suggest the next five years are not primed for glory.
Trump’s economic threats also hardly seem reason for optimism. But could they kickstart a golden demi-decade for Britfood?
The America-first mindset and fast diplomacy might not be palatable, but they demonstrate how a clear vision can lead to powerful, actionable policy. Arguably, that’s just what the UK food and drink industry needs: a clear vision that applies to domestic and foreign policy, not just the sector. Can we be the nation that truly puts ‘food first’ when it comes to our health, national security, economy, exports and imports?
The prospect of VAT tariffs and a less favourable export position with the US could be seized as a chance to double down on seeing home-grown food as medicine. Or a chance to set the clearest food and drink strategy in the world. An opportunity to turbo-charge British provenance in European and Asian markets. Radical rethinking that makes it clear Britain is going to rebuild its wellness as a nation – by making the cleanest food on the planet, treating its farmers as economic assets, and using those facets to make brand Britfood impervious to tariffs.
The Global Perceptions report 2023 showed that 18 to 34-year-olds across the G20 countries say the UK is the top state for having a positive impact in the world. Can we live up to it? Ultra-processed foods account for 56.8% of the average Brit’s diet [British Medical Journal], 26% are obese [NHS], tooth decay is rife with a quarter of under-fives suffering [Office for Health Improvement and Disparities]. If we don’t act now, 2030 could be a dark place.
Let’s use the tariff narrative as a wake-up call to take control and think big. This is the demi-decade to make Britain a ‘food first’ nation.
Harvey Choat is the MD at Nexus PR
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