It is rare that anyone will feel sympathy for tobacco manufacturers but this week, with the announcement of a new review into plain packaging, you have to say they have fallen victim to the worst kind of politicking.

Last year the government held a lengthy consultation on plain packs, receiving hundreds of thousands of responses both for and against.

It had looked from the outset that the government and the PM in particular were in favour of the measure, then as a result of the inconclusive nature of the consultation, it took the sensible decision to hold fire and wait to assess some credible evidence once such evidence became available.

Of course with the election campaign seemingly already well under way there is little room in Westminster these days for sensible decisions. The government’s move in July was widely pilloried by anti-tobacco campaigners and the Labour Party, which claimed it had been swayed by big tobacco. The whole affair was muddied by David Cameron’s election strategist Lynton Crosby, whose firm had previously worked on behalf of tobacco giant Philip Morris.

Let’s wait for the evidence from Australia, said the government in July – plain packs were introduced down under almost exactly a year ago – so what has changed between July and today?

The main thing is that the government’s public health credentials have come under intense scrutiny, with the health lobby furious over the delay and the decision to shelve minimum unit pricing for alcohol.

Anti-tobacco campaigners point to a study conducted in the state of Victoria, which showed 81% of buyers of plain packs said they were more likely to consider quitting as a result of the sickly olive green packs with the prominent health warnings. Opponents say there is evidence that smoking rates have remained largely the same and the illicit trade is rising.

It seems to me there is no credible evidence one way or the other and the fact that the issue is so divisive and inflammatory means that health groups will always make more of these studies than they should, while the pro-tobacco lobby will dismiss them too lightly.

What I can’t see is how the ‘independent’ review announced today is going to find any further compelling evidence down under between now and March. But the fact it will be chaired by leading paediatrician Sir Cyril Chantler, and that the government is planning enabling legislation to speed plain packs into law if the review demands it, suggests that the decision may well have already been made.

In just two weeks European health ministers look set to ratify the EU Tobacco Products Directive, which will include mandatory pictorial health warnings covering 65% of the front and back of all tobacco packs – this is plain packaging by any other name – and largely removes the need for any further action by individual member states. Of course the British public know very little of these plans and the government is this week thinking as much about votes as public health.

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