Well, how long is a piece of string?
The implications from Theresa May’s arrival in Number 10 for the country – and its food & drink sector – are even less clear than one would normally expect with a change of government.
In the absence of a leadership campaign, a manifesto or, indeed, a general election – and in light of May’s famously low-key profile – the UK is now in for a steep learning curve on its new PM, her values and her priorities.
That’s before we even get to the small matter of Brexit and what happens next.
The appointment of the new Cabinet today should create at least some clarity on what business can expect from key departments in the months ahead, and May’s much-vaunted reputation as a pragmatist and safe pair of hands will go some way towards calming industry nerves. (Though expect her ‘Brexit means Brexit’ slogan to lose its lustre rather quickly now it actually has to be turned into something tangible and meaningful.)
But what clues are there on how the new PM is likely to approach food & drink?
Those familiar with her work as a “hands-on” constituency MP in Maidenhead attest May is “no stranger” to the key issues facing food and farming – and she’s not afraid to get her hands (or shoes!) dirty in the process. One source recalls May carefully changing out of a pristine pair of kitten heels into a “slightly older pair of kitten heels” before getting on with the business of visiting a mucky farm.
Farmers will be hoping for a similarly hands-on approach to Brexit negotiations: while May, like many politicians, is thought to have wanted a fresh look at the Common Agricultural Policy, sources say they are confident she will commit to the same level of support for UK farmers until 2020, though what happens beyond that remains, of course, anyone’s guess.
Farming will also be looking for positive signs from May on migrant labour. Her long stint at the Home Office means she’s extensively briefed on agricultural labour issues (the GLA was moved to the Home Office under her auspices and she championed the Modern Slavery Act in Parliament), though her refusal, in 2014, to extend the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme means there is some nervousness around what a post-Brexit approach might look like.
More generally, May’s recent pronouncements on curbing executive compensation and wanting to introduce Continental-style employee representation on company boards will have pricked up ears across sectors, not least food & drink.
As will the new PM’s views on foreign takeovers: “As we saw when Cadbury’s – that great Birmingham company – was bought by Kraft, or when AstraZeneca was almost sold to Pfizer, transient shareholders – who are mostly companies investing other people’s money – are not the only people with an interest when firms are sold or close,” she said recently. “Workers have a stake, local communities have a stake, and often the whole country has a stake.”
This emphasis on workers – and her infamous plea in 2002 that the Tories needed to broaden their sympathies and combat their “nasty party” image – suggest post-Brexit efforts from industry to stall government initiatives like the apprenticeship levy and the national living wage are likely to fall on deaf ears.
On the other hand, efforts to fight back against public health interventions like the sugar tax could prove more fruitful. With David Cameron’s childhood obesity strategy shelved for now, May could well be looking to put her own stamp on the issue.
During her time as an MP, obesity – particularly childhood obesity – has cropped up on several occasions: in 2007, when in opposition, May called for a debate on obesity in Parliament; she also pressed the then Labour government on a link between obesity and claims of disability benefits.
Her diagnosis, in 2012, with Type I diabetes is believed to have further fuelled her personal interest in the health debate.
Industry sources say they are encouraged by the language the new PM has used when talking about obesity. Though she backed a campaign to unmask the “hidden salt, fat and sugar lurking in common foods” back in 2006, she has also been keen to stress the role of exercise in combating childhood obesity.
“I believe that there are two sides to the problem,” she said during a Commons debate in 2006. “It is not just about what children eat, but about how much exercise they take.”
That same year, she also raised childhood obesity in the context of planning: “Houses are being knocked down with flats built in their place, and houses are being crammed into people’s back gardens. No wonder children are getting obese if they do not have any gardens to run around in.”
That will be music to the ears of many in the food & drink industry, who have long argued the role of energy balance is not getting the political attention it deserves. “If we can get someone in Number 10 who focuses less on silver bullets like the sugar tax and instead brings a deeper understanding of the kinds of changes that are needed from an education and infrastructure point of view, that would be remarkable,” says one senior industry source.
How big a priority obesity will be to prime minister May once she gets stuck into the gnarly business of extricating the UK from the European Union, however, will be quite a different matter.
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