First there was the mass slaughter of sheep. Now, experts are warning a no-deal Brexit could also lead to the culling of some 45,000 dairy cows in Northern Ireland. And yet, as Halloween draws ever closer, industry insiders claim the government is refusing to take these nightmare scenarios seriously.

Currently, around a third of the milk produced in Northern Ireland is processed in the Republic of Ireland. In the event of a no-deal, EU import tariffs and customs barriers would likely stop that trade, leaving NI dairy farmers without a market for their milk.

Some milk could be sent to plants in NI and mainland UK for processing, but a lack of capacity means some farmers would be forced to reduce their herds and cull their animals, according to an industry source speaking to the BBC’s Newsnight programme.

In response, Defra said a widespread cull of livestock was absolutely not something that the government anticipates nor is planning for in the event of no-deal, and insisted it would make sure Brexit worked for farmers in Britain and Northern Ireland. “The government is boosting its preparations to ensure we are fully prepared to leave the EU on 31 October, whatever the circumstances,” it added.

But details of exactly what the government is doing to prepare remain sketchy, to say the least. In fact, with fewer than three months to go, the government has yet to provide the industry with much of the basic information it needs to plan for a no-deal scenario. There is still a huge question mark over what’s happening with health marks, for example, or veterinary agreements with third countries.

Indeed, when former Defra minister Robert Goodwill MP was questioned by Newsnight, he wasn’t able to give any specifics as to what the government was doing to prepare. Other than to ask Ireland and the EU to waive the tariffs on milk imports – which they are unlikely to do as it would breach WTO rules.

It was, as former Sainsbury’s CEO Justin King said, a scary five minutes, which ”demonstrated completely there is not adequate preparation for no-deal”.

Farmers won’t be the only ones affected by a no-deal. Food and drink companies have this week called on the government to put a hold on competition law if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal – so they can work together to avert food shortages without facing large fines for collusion. 

It came after a new study by Professor Tim Lang warned a no-deal Brexit would cause “unprecedented” levels of disruption to food supply and accused the UK government of deliberately keeping details of potential food shortages out of its public Brexit planning strategy. 

So far, the only guarantee the government has given the food industry is that UK tariffs on most food and drink would be temporarily slashed to zero. But trade experts claim a no-deal would huge disruption at ports, which would likely lead to shortages in fresh foods and speciality ingredients in the weeks after Brexit regardless of what tariffs are imposed. 

“The government’s expectation is that something like 50% of lorries will not pass smoothly through the border,” King told Newsnight.

“Supermarkets will do whatever they can to cope with the disruption. But let’s be clear – there is about 10 days of fresh food in the UK in total.The kind of disruption the government is talking about today will lead to significant gaps on the shelves within a week.”

This could all turn out to be fearmongering, of course. As some have pointed out, no one actually knows what will happen in the event of a no-deal. But that doesn’t make it any less scary. And I’d argue that if the government is going to pursue a no-deal no matter what, it should at least have a proper understanding of what is at stake, and a proper contingency plan to prevent against the horrors of mass animal slaughter and food shortages should our worst nightmares be realised. 

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