Consolidation and 30% excesses in wine production will erode consumer choice in wines over the next few years, according to leading figures in the industry.
At a trade briefing called Encouraging Consumer Choice, visitors to the London International Wine and Spirits Fair this week were told of a "dumbing down" of wine and an increasing emphasis on New World brands at the hands of global corporations.
Speaker Ian Harris, CEO of the Wine and Spirit Education Trust and former marketing director of Seagram, said: "Wine brands are getting stronger and the choice for consumers is becoming more limited."
He added that consolidation had put control of the wine industry in the hands of a few, and predicted there would be 10 key global players in five years' time with all of them promoting New World brands. Huge range rationalisation had begun, said Harris. Although there were still about 16,000 wine brands in the UK, fewer than 1% of suppliers produced the Top 50 which accounted for 38% of sales, he said.
Industry data suggested there was 30% excess of production over consumption, he said, indicating the market was set to grow increasingly cut-throat.
Harris said a wine producer had more chance of being assassinated than getting a listing at a supermarket, with odds at 16,000 to one.
Other speakers included Jane Carr, executive director of the Institute of Masters of Wine, and Masters of Wine Sally Easton and David Wrigley. Easton, a former wine buyer, said a prevalence of "Coca-Cola style wine brands" was dumbing down the market.
Big brands did have a role in encouraging trial and making it easier for non-expert consumers to select a wine, she said.
The solution to the problems the industry was facing lay in consumer education, said Harris, adding that if consumers were more knowledgeable, they would trade up and experiment more.
n The Wine and Spirit Education Trust is to address the subject of overproduction at its annual lecture next year.

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