It’s been estimated that it will cost the UK £1.4tn to reach net zero by 2050. I’ve not seen a similar estimate for eliminating ultra-processed foods (UPF) from the nation’s diet, but whatever the cost, it’s not going to happen. The impact on inflation, the inconvenience, the food waste, to say nothing of the denial to the nation’s tastebuds, would cause misery and starvation. And for all the health concerns associated with UPF, this realisation must surely have played a part in Mars’ thinking as it doubled down on snacking with its $36bn investment in Kellanova.
But concerns over ultra-processed foods are unquestionably having an influence on shopper behaviour. While the travails of the plant-based category are not entirely down to consumer realisation of just how highly processed a lot of the alt-meat and alt-dairy products are, a notable feature of this week’s plant-based report is that sales of less processed options such as tofu and tempeh are outperforming the market. As valuations in the category have tumbled, it’s no surprise The Tofoo Co has received new private equity backing.
It seems a seed has been sown in the conscience of consumers. And while there’s lots of debate on the extent to which the term UPF has taken root, it’s inevitable that retailers and suppliers will want to respond by developing less highly processed foods in other categories too, with cleaner ingredients decks and no ‘nasties’.
This is a direction of travel that arguably started before the term UPF was even coined. But heightened awareness is resulting in higher expectations. As we report this week, M&S has threatened to drop the ‘Eat Well’ label for products from suppliers that are deemed to be UPFs. But it will struggle to follow through on its threats, given the technical challenge of creating commercially viable products. It’s an impossible brief anyway given the inconsistent and nebulous definitions. With more than five ingredients, almost all ready meals are ultra-processed, according to one such definition. Still, you have to applaud the ambition. Our diets will never be UPF-free (whatever that means). But it should not be for want of trying.
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