Mince pies have soared in price by as much as 40% year-on-year in the supermarkets, amid tight supply of sultanas and butter.
The Grocer’s analysis of 40 like-for-like products available in the supermarkets and discounters this year and last shows pre-promotional prices are up by an average of 8.6% [2 December 2023 vs 2 December 2024].
Twenty-six SKUs have risen in price year-on-year, 12 have remained stable and two are cheaper this year than last.
Three of Tesco’s Finest SKUs – All Butter Pastry Mini Mince Pies 9x31g, Frangipane Mince Pies 4x50g and Spiced Rum Mince Pies 4x63g – for instance, have shot up by 40% from £2.50 to £3.50.
The base price of Iceland’s Luxury 6 Butter Mince Pies is up 20% from £2.50 to £3, while its 6 Mince Pies are up 16% from £1.25 to £1.45.
Aldi’s Holly Lane 6 Deep Filled Mince Pies and 6 Iced Mince Pies, meanwhile, are both up 15%, from £1.09 to £1.25. Asda’s The Bakery 6 Mince Pies are also up 15% from £1.09 to £1.25.
The base price of Waitrose’s 6 All Butter Mince Pies has risen 10% from £2.50 to £2.75, while Sainsbury’s Taste The Difference 4 Frangipane Mince Pies and 9 Mini Mince Pies are both up 9%, from £2.75 to £3.
All of the retailers are running promotions on selected mince pie lines.
Ingredient costs
The Grocer understands supermarkets and suppliers have been grappling with the rising costs of ingredients such as sultanas and butter.
Heavy rains in Turkish sultana growing regions in May and June 2023 resulted in a poor crop last year. This meant commodity prices shot up 61.0% from $1,615 per tonne on 3 May 2023 to $2,600 per tonne on 1 November, according to data provided by Expana.
“The adverse effects of the above-average rains and high humidity have stretched into the current 2024/25 campaign,” said Jara Zicha, senior market analyst at Expana.
“Following the low output last year, the industry has carried over limited stocks into 2024/25, often used by factories in Turkey to fulfil their existing contracts at that time.
“Almost zero carry-in inventory further exacerbated the supply tightness in Turkey this year, providing more price support.”
As a result, Turkish sultana prices $4,060 per tonne on 3 July 2024, Expana’s data shows. However, they have since come down to $3,600 per tonne [27 November 2024].
Tight supply does not appear to have affected shelf prices of sultanas, however. Own-label 500g packs are stable year-on-year, at an average price of £1.26 [Assosia 52 w/e 28 November 2024].
One supplier told The Grocer: “Hopefully vine fruit markets calm down soon, but that’s very unlikely until we get the Turkish new crop around September next year.”
Meanwhile, The Grocer last month reported that butter prices had increased by as much as 20.8% month-on-month in the supermarkets, following a tightening in supply of milk and cream [Assosia 52 w/e 7 November 2024].
“Tight supplies of milk and cream, due to adverse weather conditions, have led to wholesale butter prices soaring, currently 60% higher than a year ago,” said Harvir Dhillon, BRC economist at the time.
“Prices should start to settle in spring when there will be a greater supply of milk.”
Competitive pricing
Speaking on the mince pie price increases, a spokesman for Tesco said: “All our mince pies are competitively priced against similar products available sold at other retailers.”
Iceland was “committed to maintaining competitive pricing on all our products”, a spokeswoman told The Grocer.
A spokesman for Waitrose said: “While no retailer is immune to inflation, we work hard to keep costs down – without compromising on quality.
“To offer even better value, this year we’ve extended the special offers across our mince pies. These deals are hugely popular and are taken up by the majority of customers.”
A Sainsbury’s spokeswoman said: “While prices can go up and down for a range of reasons, we’re committed to offering our customers great choice, quality and value when they shop with us, including with our by Sainsbury’s mince pies which are £1.70.”
”Plus throughout December, every penny from each pack of by Sainsbury’s and Free from classic mince pies sold will be donated to Comic Relief.”
Morrisons and Aldi declined to comment, while Asda had not responded to requests at the time of publication.
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