Trade faces another resilience test with fresh produce deliveries being cancelled or delayed

It’s widely predicted that food prices will increase this autumn, due to rising global food commodity costs (up 12% by the end of the year according to an FAO report), and extra transport and red tape costs.

But there’s a more immediate crisis to contend with: product shortages. It’s 15 months since shelves were stripped bare at the outbreak of the pandemic. No one wants a return of those harrowing scenes. And importantly we do not expect the scale of the crisis to mirror that initial period, as the circumstances are different. Nonetheless there are grave concerns over the likely impact of the now well-documented labour shortages.

For several weeks now, we’ve been reporting product shortages in the convenience trade, notably on the drinks side, as the HGV driver crisis has coincided with the reopening of pubs and restaurants, hot weather and the Euros.

But the problem is spreading like wildfire. While Morrisons has managed to avert the cancellation of wholesale supply deals at the 11th hour, driver shortages are now affecting supply to supermarkets, with a growing number of fresh produce deliveries cancelled, while food waste soars as deliveries are focused on supermarket replenishment.

Read more:

• Wake up, ministers: industry is not crying wolf over the HGV crisis

• Government rejects calls for food redistribution funding despite HGV hunger crisis

• Boss Ken Murphy says Tesco has gone into ‘overdrive’ to tackle HGV crisis

• The driver shortage will escalate to a crisis without fast government support

In crisis government talks this week a transport minister infuriated experts by accusing them of ‘crying wolf’. The trade has long since warned of an impending disaster amid long-term HGV driver shortages. Yet always the industry has found solutions, as it proved with its brilliant response to the coronavirus last year.

But whereas that crisis was relatively short-lived and caused by a lack of consumer trust in the food supply chain’s resilience, the labour crisis is different, with the labour pool further limited by (among other things) Brexit; new IR35 tax rules; new, easier and better-paid delivery jobs; furloughing; natural wastage (via death and retirement); and an inability to grant new licences.

And what’s infuriating the trade most is that the government won’t entertain any of the proposed quick-fix solutions (even temporarily) to avert this crisis – as that would be to admit a level of responsibilty for the crisis in the first place.