Short-term supply looks good but trade concerned about longer term New outbreaks of FMD are prompting more warnings of a severe shortage of home produced beef next year, despite the present softening of the market as abattoirs kill almost normal numbers of stock. Prices reported by the MLC and Irish suppliers' comments on current trading in Britain indicate familiar seasonal conditions, forequarters becoming cheaper while intermittent hot weather boosts steak sales and supply seems about right for demand or perhaps slightly more than adequate. MAFF's latest available slaughter estimates show an average weekly kill of about 20,000 steers, roughly 10% fewer than a year ago. Heifer slaughter appears to be down by a similar margin, while the young bull kill is holding up better because more of these beasts were in the pipeline when the crisis started. The picture is similar in the pig sector, only the sow cull showing a dramatic reduction. Sheep slaughter is still well down, but overall UK meat production for the year so far no longer gives the impression of a major crisis on the supply side. However, this favourable assessment was challenged by some producer and meat trade sources in northern England in Monday when MAFF reimposed strict controls on livestock movement in Cumbria, just a few days after new measures were introduced in neighbouring Lancashire and Yorkshire. On the other hand, the ministry had earlier shown surprising flexibility in allowing cattle to be moved, apparently breaching its own rules, following an abattoir fire in Devon. As The Grocer went to press it seemed the short-term outlook nationally was still for a steady improvement in availability of cattle for slaughter, but industry sources expressed deepening concern over medium to longer term prospects, especially for lamb, due in part to restocking difficulties. {{M/E MEAT }}

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