A deadly outbreak of African swine fever in China is posing a “major threat” to the country’s pork industry, experts warn, and could eventually have an impact on pork prices in the UK.
The disease, which poses no risk to humans but has a 100% fatality rate for pigs in its most virulent form, was first detected in China last month. It has since spread to more than 18 farms and abattoirs across six Chinese provinces - which are in some cases more than one thousand kilometres apart.
The vast distances between cases suggests the disease is being spread through processed or raw pork products rather than live animals, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, which convened an emergency meeting on the outbreak in Bangkok last week.
It is a “near certainty” the disease will soon reach other countries in East and Southeast Asia where pork consumption is high, the FAO has warned.
“Unfortunately, what we’re seeing so far is just the tip of the iceberg,” said Juan Lubroth, the FAO’s chief veterinary officer.
There appears to have already been a “slight uplift in pork prices” in China as a result of the outbreak, says Phil Hadley, AHDB international market development director. “If they start to restrict supply and end up losing animals out of the supply chain that might increase demand, but it might also temper demand as consumers look for alternative products,” he says.
Higher prices in China could “in principle have an impact on our domestic supply”, he adds, although he stresses it is “too early to tell” exactly what the outcome will be.
For now, pork prices remain on a downward trend, with the GB standard pig price (UK spec) falling by 0.23p, to 145.39p/kg in the week ended 8 September 2018, which is 14.61p below last year’s price. The EU spec SPP also fell by 0.23p, to 148.05p/kg, which is 14.87p below last year [AHDB].
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