Shoppers are facing large price hikes in beef due to a significant tightening in UK supply and record-high farmgate prices.
Some 314 (or 43%) of the 730 fresh beef lines sold at the UK’s 10 largest supermarkets have seen price hikes since the turn of the year, according to analysis of Assosia data by The Grocer.
The biggest increase was for a Birchwood British 30 day matured XXL beef roasting joint (1kg) in Lidl, up 40.4% to £7.99. An M&S Aberdeen Angus rump steak (227g) sold on Ocado was subect to the second-highest rise, up by 27.3% to £7 between 1 January and 11 February.
In total, some 96 lines were subject to price hikes of more than 10%. And 314 lines increased in price to some extent, by an average of 8.2% – realising warnings of price hikes first reported by The Grocer last autumn.
AHDB analysis also pointed to a significant increase in beef prices since the start of the year.
The price per kg for standard mince is up by 5.4% from w/e 4 January to 15 February, its data shows, while lean mince and sirloin steak is on average 8% dearer.
The levy board’s analysis also revealed beef roasting joints had risen by an average of 17% over the same period.
It comes as AHDB last week warned reduced domestic cattle supply was expected “to contribute to lower beef production levels in 2025”, with estimates pointing to a 5% year-on-year drop in volumes to 885,000 tonnes.
This followed ”historical contraction in the core supply base and strong production levels in 2024”, AHDB said. A range of challenges are impacting beef producers, with factors including concerns over underlying business profitability, declining direct payments and low uptake of new agriculture policy schemes.
Farmgate prices are already at record highs due to tight supply in 2024. AHDB’s benchmark GB R4L steer price hit 630.6p/kg on 8 February, up 11.4% since 4 January and 24.7% year on year.
AHDB lead analyst for red meat Hannah Clarke said tight supply was expected to continue into 2025, which would likely “point to an increase in import requirements of 12% on 2024 levels”.
Import volumes had already risen last year by 5%, she added. Volumes from the UK’s largest supplier – Ireland – drove the increase, up by 11% on the year. “The wide price differential between British and Irish cattle prices that opened up during the year was likely a key driver of increased trade, as well as robust domestic UK demand for beef.”
The higher prices in retail could dampen down the strong demand for beef seen in the past 12 months, she suggested. Beef sales in the mults enjoyed a strong 2024, with NIQ data [52 w/e 18 September] showing beef value sales up 8.5% and volumes up 2.1% as shoppers returned to the category.
“The price evolution of beef at retail will be a key watchpoint for the price-conscious consumer, and the balance of cuts purchased will be crucial to determining overall carcase values,” Clarke said.
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