beef

Cyclical downturn begins as EC reports June census Cattle numbers start to decline Beef production in the EU is beginning a cyclical downturn. Cattle numbers have started falling in some of the most important breeding regions, and meat output this year will be slightly lower than in 1998. Further decline is likely next year. The European Commission reports June census results showing the total EU beef herd smaller than in 1998 after several years of expansion. Sharply lower heifer numbers mean continued contraction appears inevitable. However, the latest statistics published in Brussels send a mixed message to the UK industry and its major domestic customers. As in the pig sector, the timing of the output cycle here is not quite the same as on the Continent. UK prime cattle slaughterings are currently lower than a year ago, and prices are fairly firm. Yet the kill is holding up better than expected. With supply boosted by increased imports and the release of intervention stocks, retailers appear likely to have access to far more product for pre-Christmas promotions than was forecast earlier in the year. Cyclical changes in total EU cattle numbers and beef output are usually much smaller than in the pig and sheep sectors. And the present tightening sends a misleading signal because the herd contraction has been affected in the UK, particularly by the subsidised calf culling scheme, which ended in the summer. Calves now re-entering the commercial market, instead of being destroyed, will boost UK beef production in the second half of next year, and this will push up total EU output. However, there is still a chance of scarcity in the January to March period because subsidy changes will give British producers an incentive to delay marketings. {{MEAT }}