An “ongoing shortage of lorry drivers” could threaten deliveries of turkeys and mince pies this Christmas, the logistics sector has warned.
Three years on from the peak of the HGV driver crisis of 2021, when there was a shortfall of over 100,000 qualified drivers, the UK was still experiencing “a significant shortage of HGV drivers” despite the increase in the number of tests, said Keith Hawes, director at Nationwide Vehicle Contracts.
NVC’s research found that, from 2022 to 2023, the driving test centre in Yeading, London, conducted the most HGV driving tests, with 4,708 tests, yet the pass rate was only 52.7%.
“It is more than likely that the UK will face shortages and delays this festive period from the [lorry] driver crisis”, Hawes said, when demand among shoppers typically shoots up.
He added: “A shortage of drivers can lead to businesses not receiving produce on time, resulting in fewer products in shops for consumers. A decrease in supply will lead to an increase in costs, as well as unhappy customers over the festive period.”
As Britain gears up for the festive period, new research out this week by supply chain tech experts Samsara also revealed an increasing discontent among professional drivers, with a staggering 72% claiming they may consider strike action before the end of the year.
Read more: HGV driver shortages set to reach ‘tipping point’
The potential for any further supply chain disruptions – such as possible delays at the EU border linked to post-Brexit border requirements – is forcing food businesses to hold higher levels of stock in preparation for the peak holiday season.
There was a “reluctance amongst continental hauliers to accept jobs to UK after 20 December to avoid problems delivering and returning prior to the 25”, according to Andrew Crumpton, CEO of AMC Food Consulting, as new post-Brexit border checks had led to longer waiting times for hauliers entering Britain.
But “everyone is aware of potential delays and have taken steps to ensure Christmas products has been imported earlier than would have been the case in the past”, Crumpton, whose clients mainly deal in long-life ambient product categories, said.
“They are therefore holding higher levels of stock in the UK at present. On average an extra 10 days has been incorporated into the supply chain lead times.”
He added: “Overall it seems that everyone is aware of the potential for delays and are building in extra time and increased stock levels to try and mitigate and problematic issues.”
The Cold Chain Federation, which represents the UK’s temperature-controlled logistics industry, also confirmed that cold storage capacity levels were higher than in previous years, “which suggests that concerns over navigating the EU/GB border could be leading to food businesses increasing stocking levels in advance of the festive season”.
“Despite the ongoing challenges operating to BTOM, cold chain businesses will be working flat-out throughout the Christmas period to ensure there will be sufficient supplies of the UK’s favourite products”, said Tom Southall, deputy CEO at the CCF.
Read more: EU lorry drivers refusing UK jobs over Brexit delays ‘will lead to shortages’
Meanwhile, trade body Logistics UK also maintained driver shortages had “stabilised” and that the sector was fully prepared for the festive season.
Policy deputy director, Michelle Gardner, said: “Logistics businesses pride themselves on their resilience and adaptability to ensure they can deliver for the country and the economy – especially at Christmas.
“The sector is always looking to strengthen the talent pool for logistics, as it is so intertwined with the prosperity of the UK’s economy, which is why the Generation Logistics campaign is critical for building future resilience and ensuring a steady flow of qualified talent is available to support the supply chain.”
However, Samsara’s latest survey, conducted among 500 professional UK drivers, painted a more troubling picture for the transport and logistics sector.
It highlighted a series of concerns within a “frustrated workforce”, including poor working conditions and long hours.
Nearly half of drivers (47%) believed their pay was not keeping up with the rising cost of living crisis, and as many as 41% said they would consider leaving their jobs if conditions did not improve.
Most drivers (69%) also agreed the UK was still facing a severe driver shortage, yet only 34% felt their roles were respected or valued by the government.
Samsara’s senior VP (EMEA), Philip van der Wilt, said: “With this apparent growing discontent among drivers, the logistics and transport sector stands at a critical crossroads and without meaningful change, the industry risks losing a significant portion of its essential staff.
“Improving working hours, workload management, and overall conditions for frontline workers is essential to maintaining a reliable workforce during this peak period. This is a pivotal moment for fleet-based businesses to consider innovative ways to support their drivers.”
Read more: HGV driver shortages: how can another crisis be avoided?
NVC’s Hawes agreed the UK would have to “focus on initiatives to continue to encourage individuals to take their HGV driving tests to mitigate the risk of a driver shortage”.
“UK businesses will need to offer attractive incentives to increase the workforce of HGV drivers, especially for the younger demographic”, he added.
The “chronic” shortage of drivers was set to become a large problem in the coming years, according to NVC, with 55% of lorry drivers in the UK now aged 50 to 65 – meaning most drivers will retire in the coming decade.
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