Unilever, Associated British Foods and the British supermarkets were some of yesterday’s rare winners on stock markets as investors sought to take shelter from a burgeoning trade war started by Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ speech.
As global markets tumbled, investors turned to retailers and consumer goods companies usually more resistant to serious economic downturns.
As the FTSE 100 fell around 1.5%, Unilever, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, and Marks & Spencer all saw their share price rise around 3%. ABF’s was up almost 1%.
Even Diageo and its huge shipments of US-bound whisky ended the day flat as investors breathed a sigh of relief that the UK was only hit with a milder tariff rate of just 10%.
However, Trump’s decision to impose a higher 20% duty on imports from the EU meant companies across the Channel fared less well. Moët Hennessy was down almost 6%, meaning its market value has now tumbled around 15% since Trump’s inauguration in January.
While there was a certain relief that the tariffs are only set to 20%, given Trump threatened 200% on any EU alcohol earlier this month, it is still likely to have a devastating impact on sales.
The French wine and spirit exporters group said sales would likely fall by at least 20% after Trump’s announcement, while Pernod Ricard previously warned a 10% tariff could cost it over $200m a year. Yesterday, its share price was down 3%.
Rémy Cointreau is perhaps the most exposed European booze company, given more than a third of its sales are in the Americas – mainly the US – and almost all of it is imported, said Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling. Its share price fell around 5% yesterday.
The bigger picture is that economists must now tear up their forecasts for economic growth, with Trump’s tariffs a “game-changer” for the global economy, said credit rating firm Fitch.
In the UK, Barclays predicts the tariffs will cut growth by 1.5% this year. If true, this would push the economy into recession, given the UK economy was on course to expand by 1% this year, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.
In the US, the tariffs could knock US economic growth down by 2% and raise inflation about 5%, according to UBS.
This is just the beginning, however. Much will depend on what other countries do next. Markets are clearly expecting significant damage to the growth of both economies and company earnings.
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