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Brexit uncertainty and a slowdown in the jobs market hit consumer and business confidence in the third quarter, with a further drop in confidence and slowdown in consumer spending tipped for next year.

The Deloitte Consumer Tracker survey released this morning, based on interviews with more than 3,000 UK consumers, shows a drop in consumer confidence to -9% in the third quarter.

This represents a 1 percentage point drop from the second quarter and is the lowest measure since the final quarter of 2018.

The study also found confidence on job security was three points lower year-on-year at -8%, with sentiment around job opportunities and career progression down five points to -6 per cent.

Meanwhile, Delloite found 70% of employers are expecting to reduce recruitment over the next 12 months.

Chief economist at Deloitte Ian Stewart sad: “Up to now we have seen a slowdown everywhere but in the jobs market and in the consumer economy. A decline in consumer confidence this quarter, combined with a fall in official unemployment figures, show that the period of remarkable resilience in jobs and earnings is coming to an end.

“With Brexit cited as the biggest risk businesses face, the last quarter has also seen heightened concern over slowing growth in the UK and Eurozone and chief financial officers are tightening their purse strings in response.”

Despite the gloomy confidence figures, confidence in disposable income rose one point to 19% year-on-year, with confidence amongst 18-34 year olds up 10 percentage points driven by the April rise in the National Living Wage.

Increased spending was most prevalent in the leisure sector, with nine out of 11 the survey’s leisure categories seeing rises in the quarter, including eating out, culture and entertainment and gym and sports.

However, Oaten warned: “The headwinds from a major global slowdown and uncertainty at home point to weaker growth ahead.

“As a result, 2020 is likely to see not only lower levels of consumer confidence but also a slowing down of consumer spending growth.”

Morning update

Vimto producer Nichols (NICL) has hired Mr David Rattigan as its Chief Financial Officer with effect from 24 February 2020.

He will take over the role from Tim Croston who will step down from the Board by 30 June 2020 after 15 years with the Group.

Rattigan has worked in senior financial positions in the consumer sector for a number of year. He is currently interim CFO of McBride plc following five years as group financial controller.

Former positions include various roles at John Lewis Partnership, director of financial control at Premier Foods, director of business services at Sodexo UK & Ireland and senior financial controller of United Biscuits.

Chairman John Nichols commented: “I am delighted to announce David’s appointment as Chief Financial officer and look forward to welcoming him to the Company in the new year.

“Tim Croston, our outgoing CFO, will work closely with David to ensure a smooth transition of his responsibilities until his departure in June. I would like to reiterate our thanks to Tim for his significant contribution over 15 years with the group.”

On the markets this morning, the FTSE 100 has started the week up 0.3% at 7,173.4pts.

Early risers include DS Smith (SMDS), up 2.4% to 346.8p, Stock Spirits (STCK), up 2.2% to 216.7p and Marks & Spencer (MKS), up 1.9% to 204.4p.

Fallers so far include Just Eat (JE), down 5.5% to 590.4p, Hilton Food Group (HFG), down 1.3% to 1,036p and Unilever (ULVR), down 0.7% to 4,594.5p.

This week in the City

The week brings another flurry of results after the autumn reporting season kicked off in earnest last week.

Tomorrow sees third quarter results from consumer giant Reckitt Benckiser (RB), while private label household goods manufacturer McBride (MCB) will post its first quarter results.

Internationally P&G will post its first quarter earnings on Tuesday, with Kimberly Clark and Carrefour, reporting Q3s.

Wednesday brings third quarter results from Dutch brewer Heineken (HEIN).

Thursday sees beer and cider producer C&C Group (CCR) post its interim results, while Coca-Cola European Parnters (CCEP) will issue its third quarter numbers.

Also posting results on Thursday are Amazon(AMZN) and Hershey with their Q3s

Friday brings third quarter results from the world’s biggest brewer AB InBev (ABI).

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