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UK consumers have shrugged off post-referendum pessimism, with confidence rising to a five-year high in Q3 2016, according to the latest Consumer Tracker from Deloitte.
The quarterly survey of 3,000 UK consumers, carried out between 16 and 18 of September, has found that confidence rose by three percentage points from the previous quarter – the largest quarterly increase in confidence in 18 months.
Five out of the six measures which make up the confidence index rose since the second quarter, with job security, job opportunities and career progression seeing particularly strong gains in consumer optimism. Confidence in job security rose by six percentage points compared to the previous quarter, after having fallen for the previous three consecutive quarters.
London’s confidence is now lower than the rest of the UK. Consumer sentiment in the capital fell by three percentage points in Q3, and is now 9% lower than it was at the same period last year. Brexit uncertainty is a likely reason for this disparity, particularly due to the fact that voting patterns in the referendum showed that the majority of Londoners were ‘Remainers’.
Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, said: “In contrast to the business community, with chief financial officers on the defensive following the EU Referendum, UK consumers have put Brexit fears to one side. Consumers are benefiting from favourable tailwinds, including low inflation, low unemployment and relatively high disposable incomes.”
The survey also showed that consumer spending is continuing to shift from everyday essential items to more discretionary, non-essential categories. Spending on essentials, such as clothes and groceries, was flat for the second consecutive quarter. By contrast, net spending on discretionary categories rose by one percentage point.
Morning update
The BRC- Springboard Footfall and Vacancies Monitor for September 2016 has found footfall dipped during the month, despite the recovery in retail spending.
Footfall in September was 0.9% down on a year ago, a return to the decline in footfall seen before the 0.1% rise in August. On a three-month basis, footfall declined 0.4%.
High street footfall fell after two months of growth, down 0.5% in September, after of the 1.1% rise in August. Footfall in retail park locations was broadly flat in September, worse than the 0.4% rise in August, while footfall in shopping centres fell 2.5% in September, a further fall from the 1.9% drop in August.
Diane Wehrle, marketing and insights director, Springboard, said: “The headline result for the UK shows a slight worsening of footfall in September from August, but does not reveal the underlying trend that shopping centres are losing shopper numbers at a faster rate than high streets. The issue for shopping centres could be that many have lacked the investment required to maintain their appeal for shoppers whose standards and expectations have risen.
“Moving forward into what should be the most lucrative trading period of the year, despite the challenges of a weaker pound and living wage costs, it is critical that staffing remains strong to deliver the level of customer service required to ensure retail destinations offer a quality customer experience.”
Elsewhere, the number of new beer brand marks registered in the UK reached a record high of 1,666 in the last year, jumping 12% from 1,485 in the previous twelve months, according to RPC, the City law firm.
RPC said the record number of new trade marks for beer is likely being driven, by the proliferation of new own brand “artisan” style beers being launched by mega-breweries as they seek a large share of the “craft beer” market. As the popularity of craft beers continues to rise, RPC adds that supermarkets are also investing heavily in the sector by launching or expanding their own craft beer brands and sub brands, it said.
On the markets this morning, the FTSE 100 has eased back 0.3% to 6,989.3pts on fears the UK might face an economic squeeze as inflation rises.
Most large consumer stocks are down, with notable fallers including Imperial Brands (IMB), down 1.2% to 3,843.5p, British American Tobacco (BATS), down 1.2% to 4,830.5p and Sainsbury’s (SBRY) down 0.9% to 230.9p.
Away from the FTSE 100, major fallers include PayPoint (PAY), down 4.9% to 1,111p, John Menzies (MNZS), down 1.9% to 505p and WH Smith (SMWH), down 1.7% to 1,542p.
The few risers include Conviviality (CVR), up 2% to 207p, McColl’s Retail Group (MCLS), up 1.5% to 184.8p and B&M European Value Retail (BME), up 1% to 242.1p.
This week in the City
The monthly Kantar Worldpanel and Nielsen grocery market share figures are out tomorrow morning, which will help reveal whether Tesco – the best performing of the big four recently – had any sales impact from the reduced availability of Unilever products during their dispute.
Also the official ONS retail sales figures are out on Thursday morning.
In terms of company news, it’s a week of multinational updates. It starts tomorrow in the US with Philip Morris’ (PM) third quarter earnings release.
Then on Wednesday UK-listed Reckitt Benckiser (RB) is scheduled to release an interim management statement.
Thursday is scheduled to bring a trading update from Nestle (NESN) and a fourth quarter earnings release from Boots owner Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)
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