England is heading for one of its worst ever harvests this year, with the impact of recent volatile weather wreaking a heavy toll on key crops.
Analysis of provisional data from Defra and AHDB by the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit predicts the country will this year face one of its three worst harvests since detailed records began in 1983, with the rest of the UK in a similar position.
Record breaking rain last winter had reduced yields, disrupted farmers’ ability to grow crops and reduced the crucial wheat harvest by almost a fifth, the non-profit warned.
Although the harvest was not quite as poor as had been feared this spring – immediately following the wet winter – it was still “historically bad”, just behind 2020 and 2001, the ECIU said.
This had left the UK dependent on imports to meet demand for bread and other baked goods, while the wet winter had also been made 10 times more likely by climate change, with storm rainfall 20% heavier than normal.
The group’s analysis found that the English wheat harvest was estimated to be more than 2.2 million tonnes – down 18% on 2023. The rest of Britain would fare no better, it said.
The total harvest for all winter crops was down by 13%, or three million tonnes, on the five-year average.
Ongoing questions about crop quality due to the wet winter and dull early summer are also causing some concerns for milling wheat, used to make flour for bread and other baked goods, the ECIU warned.
“It’s been a year to forget for many farmers, as the recent benign summer has failed to make up for six months of seemingly endless rain over the winter, the effects of which are now becoming apparent,” said ECIU land, food and farming analyst Tom Lancaster.
“More than most, farmers are on the frontline of climate change, and this is what that looks like,” he added. “Extreme weather is already feeding through to higher food bills and a greater reliance on imports. Measures that capture carbon can also make farms more resilient with more hedges and trees helping to cut prevent soil loss, and healthier soils recovering faster from floods and drought.”
Martin Lines, a farmer and CEO of the Nature Friendly Farming Network, said he had “never known a year like this one, and I don’t want to see another like it again”.
Given the extremes seen in recent years, however, “that seems an unrealistic hope given the climate impacts we now have to contend with”, he added.
“Extreme weather is making farming harder and it’s the main threat to our food security. Farmers need support in preparing for and coping with droughts and floods,” Lines insisted.
“Properly-funded government land management schemes are a vital first step, and have helped me to increase the resilience of my farming by improving my soil health, and boosting the amount of wildlife on my farm. I’m on tenterhooks now to see what happens at the budget.”
Budget cut concerns
His comments follow reports over the past week that the government could cut England’s farming budget by £100m to help fill a £22bn Treasury shortfall.
Civil service sources told The Guardian last week that ministers were blaming an underspend of £100m a year for the potential cut. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is due to outline her plans for public sector cuts in her budget at the end of next month.
It comes as the NFU this week urged the government to “take action” to value UK food security and ensure important environmental delivery by increasing the current agriculture budget.
Speaking ahead of a breakfast reception for MPs in Parliament to mark Back British Farming Day today (11 September), NFU president Tom Bradshaw called for clear policies from the new Labour government.
“Over the past 18 months we have seen a collapse in farmer confidence, driven by record inflation, falls in farm income and a changing climate with unprecedented weather patterns delivering relentless rain, which left thousands of acres of farmland under water,” he said.
“While in opposition we heard consistently from Labour that food security is national security. The prime minister, speaking at the NFU Conference last year, pledged that Labour ’aspires to govern for every corner of our country, and will seek a new relationship with the countryside and farming communities on this basis, a relationship based on respect and on genuine partnership’”, Bradshaw noted.
“We now need to see those ambitions realised. Today we’re calling on government to truly value UK food security by delivering a renewed and enhanced multi-annual agriculture budget of £5.6bn on 30 October.”
This budget was “essential in giving Britain’s farmers and growers the confidence they desperately need to invest for the future and deliver on our joint ambitions on producing more sustainable, affordable homegrown food while creating more jobs and delivering for nature, energy security and climate-friendly farming”, he urged.
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