It would bring together two of the most influential departments involved in future negotiations after Brexit, but would it be in the interests of food and agriculture?
Boris Johnson’s cabinet meeting on Tuesday contained just one new face: Welsh Secretary Simon Hart. The continuity is perhaps a sign that, for now at least, the prime minister is entirely focused on passing his withdrawal agreement and taking the UK out of the EU on 31 January.
However, come February, this is expected to change. Whitehall rumours are circulating that once the UK formally leaves the EU, Downing Street will launch a dramatic departmental restructure, including an axe-swinging cabinet reshuffle.
The reports include proposals for a new economic “super-ministry”, formed by merging the departments for business and international trade.
It would bring together two of the most influential departments involved in future negotiations after Brexit, raising questions of what it could mean for British trade.
It would first and foremost be a reversal of Theresa May’s departmental shake-up following the 2016 referendum, according to David Henig, director at the UK Trade Policy Project.
May created the new trade department out of existing teams in the business department and Foreign Office, supposedly to demonstrate the government’s commitment to turning its head away from Europe and towards the rest of the world.
However, to many observers it was a political move that gave little practical benefit.
“Having a standalone trade department doesn’t make a lot of sense,” said Henig. “[Johnson’s merger] corrects something that was wrong the first time round.”
Her error was separating the business department, representing businesses directly impacted by trade deals, from the department responsible for negotiating on their behalf.
Re-establishing those links, overseen by a single minister, will create a more efficient and dynamic negotiating operation, according to Jill Rutter, senior research fellow at UK in a Changing Europe.
However, inter-departmental tensions will inevitably remain.
DEFRA, responsible for food and agriculture, will hold one of the greatest stakes in trade negotiations and represents the interests of those with the most to lose. On the other hand their losses could be seen by the business department as requisite to securing trade deals beneficial to the sectors it represents.
“The big issues in trade deals will be agriculture and fisheries. The government will give access away in return for service exports,” said Rutter. Conflicts will unavoidably emerge as divergent departments clash over opposing interests.
What is less clear is the effect of the departmental merger on Whitehall’s balances of power. Tim Durrant, associate director at the Institute for Government, suggested the business department’s new-found proximity to the trade negotiations could buy it greater influence, likely at Defra’s expense.
The deciding factor will be determined by Johnson’s anointed minister.
For many years, the business department’s clout has tended to stem largely from its existing secretary of state. While Downing Street’s door was perennially open to Peter Mandelson and Michael Heseltine, it is by all accounts a considerably different story for incumbent Andrea Leadsom.
Rishi Sunak, the rising star of the Conservative Party and current chief secretary to the Treasury, is rumoured to be the favoured choice for the new super-ministry. If so, his presence alone will produce a decidedly more powerful department than anything seen since Brexit began.
Unless an equally influential behemoth resides over Defra, the battle for influence over trade talks could become decidedly one-sided.
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