The multiples will take bigger risks to boost sales over the next five years as market growth continues to slow down, according to an influential study. IGD's Grocery Retailing 2000 report predicts Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury and Safeway will account for 50% in the grocery retail sector by 2005 ­ up from 44% today. But a combination of factors ­ including price pressure and increased globalisation ­ will slow profit growth and force the big four to adopt high risk strategies for the rewards they need to continue building their businesses. IGD stressed the ability to offer huge volumes at low prices, consolidation and diversification were the key criteria for food retailers operating in an era of low growth. It forecasts the UK grocery market will reach £112.8bn by 2005 from its current £96.1bn value. However this represents only 3% growth in real terms. C-stores will increase their share of the sector from 20% in 1999 to 22% in 2005, and hard discounters will boost their 2% share by a third. But the 16% slice held by the Co-ops will slip to 15% over the same period, and other independent retailers will see a 6% shrinkage in their current 15% share by 2005. The number of stores operated by the major multiples increased by 1% during 1999 to 4,196 stores, says IGD. Asda was top when it came to average store size ­ 42,000 sq ft. Morrisons has 35,675 sq ft average ­ above both Sainsbury and Tesco ­ with Iceland's 4,854 sq ft average the smallest of the multiples, although its geographical penetration is the greatest. IGD predicts the average size of store will fall as the multiples step up small store activity in the coming year. Current planning guidelines continue to slow down the growth rate for superstore openings with their numbers increasing nearly 3% to 1,109 in 1999. The top four multiples account for 90% of the UK's 1,109 strong superstore estate ­ a reduction on the near monopoly seen in 1993 when 733 of the total 790 superstores were owned by either Tesco, Asda Sainsbury and Safeway. Asda's total sales area is 98% superstore. Tesco has consistently opened more sales space than the others, with 4.4 million sq ft opened since 1993. Safeway opened 2.9 million sq ft between 1993 and 1999 ­ more than either Asda or Sainsbury during that period. {{NEWS }}

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