In contrast to many of my analytical peers, I actually think that a bid is indeed coming for Sainsbury's (though there hadn't been one as The Grocer went to press).
Restructuring the balance sheet and running the business for cash should ensure that whichever private equity group bids, a decent return is possible (provided they don't bid much above 550p).
There are two further questions that are of interest this month: Will one bid trigger several more? And what does a bid mean for the consumer and the food retail industry?
If anybody bids for Sainsbury's, it will set off a frenzy of counter-bidding. Cast your mind back four years to the race for Safeway. All the major food retailers made bids (with varying expectations of success), and they all got a good look at the Safeway books - the only downside being a short-term jolt to their share prices.
Why would it be any different this time round? The Competition Commission may be up in arms (and the bids will have varying degrees of intent), but there's nothing to stop any of the other supermarket chains from bidding and sticking a team of three accountant types in a cab straight to Holborn for a look at the management accounts. Them's the rules, after all.
Another private equity house may also bid. Philip Green might bid. M&S could bid. In my view, one bid means four or five. At least.
Ultimately though, it's probable that JS will end up in private hands. That would be great news for industry P&Ls, but not necessarily good news for consumers.
Historically, food retailers that are taken private lose their obsession with market share. Costs are cut to the minimum, capital expenditure falls to virtually zero, and every ounce is squeezed out of gross margins (French for "prices go up").
Sainsbury's will be no different. The chain is hardly a major force for cheaper grocery baskets anyway, but the pressure on prices will take a further step backwards (it's at a long-time low anyway) as Sainsbury's is run for cash. That means easy market share pickings for the likes of Tesco, Asda and Morrisons, plus flourishing margins.
So, food price inflation may well linger on longer than many think. In the aftermath of Sainsbury's farewell to the Stock Market, we expect Tesco's and Morrisons' profit forecasts, and thus shares, to appreciate.
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