The assumption of mutton and lamb as a commodity sector in decline is being challenged by strong demand in retail and catering.
Ironically, the evidence has emerged during a period of almost unprecedented upheaval in the sheep industry, both in the UK and internationally.
FMD in this country and on the Continent, along with the drought in Australia, severely disrupted supply.
Meanwhile, confidence among processors and some producers has been affected by the CAP reform debate, and most recently the hot weather has hit sales of roasting joints.
"It had looked like FMD would be the final straw for the sheep industry,” said MLC sheepmeat sector analyst Jane Connor. “Instead we will have a remarkably resilient, albeit smaller, industry.”
Some processors and retailers have recently expressed concern at the very high prices seen in the British market. "Prices have now come down to more sustainable levels,” said Connor, discreetly welcoming the more modest returns for producers, but added: “After all, even at the high prices, the product offer was being taken up, which is encouraging.”
Connor has recently been edging her forecasts of UK production and consumption slightly higher but emphasises the new market balance.
Home output will not recover fully to pre-FMD volumes, “though there are plenty of lambs in the pipeline”, but with New Zealand supplies expected to show little change, the Irish industry contracting and Continental demand for British lamb quite strong, the incentives are there for home producers to maintain supply at prices processors and retailers should find acceptable.
Ironically, the evidence has emerged during a period of almost unprecedented upheaval in the sheep industry, both in the UK and internationally.
FMD in this country and on the Continent, along with the drought in Australia, severely disrupted supply.
Meanwhile, confidence among processors and some producers has been affected by the CAP reform debate, and most recently the hot weather has hit sales of roasting joints.
"It had looked like FMD would be the final straw for the sheep industry,” said MLC sheepmeat sector analyst Jane Connor. “Instead we will have a remarkably resilient, albeit smaller, industry.”
Some processors and retailers have recently expressed concern at the very high prices seen in the British market. "Prices have now come down to more sustainable levels,” said Connor, discreetly welcoming the more modest returns for producers, but added: “After all, even at the high prices, the product offer was being taken up, which is encouraging.”
Connor has recently been edging her forecasts of UK production and consumption slightly higher but emphasises the new market balance.
Home output will not recover fully to pre-FMD volumes, “though there are plenty of lambs in the pipeline”, but with New Zealand supplies expected to show little change, the Irish industry contracting and Continental demand for British lamb quite strong, the incentives are there for home producers to maintain supply at prices processors and retailers should find acceptable.
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