As trade sanctions against Iceland and the Faroes over the mackerel wars moved one step closer this week, an explosive new report threatens to undermine claims the two countries are catching too much of the oily fish favourite.

Scientific research over the summer indicates the North East Atlantic mackerel stock - the subject of the trade conflict between the EU and Iceland and the Faroes - is actually in growth, with 5.1 million mackerel found in the Norwegian Sea and adjacent areas alone, up 6.3% from 2010.

Figures from the body that advises the EU on fish stock health, ICES, suggested a total stock of about 3.7 million tonnes in 2011.

The news comes as the European Parliament this week paved the way for trade sanctions against Iceland and the Faroes in response to them unilaterally upping their mackerel catches.

Iceland increased from almost zero in 2006 to about 156,802 tonnes in 2011, and the Faroes increased its catch sixfold over two years to 150,000 tonnes.

However, “it looks like the mackerel stock is coping well with this and even increasing.” said Leif Nøttestad, principal scientist at the Institute of Marine Research in Bergen, Norway, who worked on the report.

He added the 5.1 million cited was likely to be an underestimate because the research had been restricted to the Norwegian Sea, which contains just part of the stock.

Aside from Norway’s marine institute, the research also involved scientists from the Icelandic and Faroese marine institutes. Nøttestad stressed they were independent of political agendas. His own country, Norway, is aligned with the EU in the mackerel war.

ICES said even if the new findings were accurate, they still did not justify Iceland and the Faroes unilaterally fishing more than agreed. “Overfishing can take place even if a stock is large and stable,” said Poul Degnbol, ICES head of advisory services.

ICES will publish its annual advice on catch limits on 28 September.

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