No evidence for soaring obesity, NOF lobbyist Tam Fry admits

Campaigners who claimed the UK faced soaring obesity levels this week admitted they had “no statistics” and “no evidence” to back up their ‘doomsday scenario’ prediction.

The National Obesity Forum’s (NOF) The State of the Nation’s Waistline report sparked huge national press coverage, resulting in calls by Labour for regulation on sugar levels in food and drink, as well as renewed calls from leading health campaigners for a so-called ‘fat tax’.

The NOF claimed the 2007 Foresight Report, which predicted half the UK could be obese by 2050, was an underestimate and the crisis was set to be even worse.

However, NOF spokesman Tam Fry admitted to The Grocer this week its report was a “best guess”, which was not based on solid evidence.

“We were very careful to use the word ‘might’ in our report,” Fry said. “We have no statistics, we have no evidence, but we have a network of clinicians from around the country who are reporting an escalation not just of obesity but associated health risks from it.”

“We have no statistics, we have no evidence, but we have a network of clinicians from around the country who are reporting an escalation not just of obesity but associated health risks from it”

Tam Fry

Fry added the original Foresight Report was what he and other health professionals regarded as “sticking a finger in the wind”.

“You could say our claims on the back of it are anecdotal, and maybe it was our fault that we didn’t say it clearly enough, but we stand by our report, which is based on reaction from the coalface.”

The UK Health Forum, which carried out the original work on the Foresight Report, accused the NOF of exaggerating its claims and attacked the latest report for its lack of research.

Earlier this week, The Grocer revealed how a forthcoming UK Health Forum report would show that on current trends - based on nearly two decades of data (1993 to 2011) from the Health Survey for England - obesity levels were predicted to be slightly lower than forecast in 2007.

“Since the Foresight Report was published, awareness of obesity has increased significantly, some of the report’s recommendations for action have been implemented in local and national policy action, and we are probably beginning to see the impact of these changes,” said UK Health Forum spokesman Tim Marsh.

“Our figures are based on seven years of data whereas there is very little in the way of research in the NOF’s report,” he told The Grocer.

Table showing predicted percentage of overweight and obesity in 21-60 year old males and females in UK population by 2050:

Source: UK Health Forum