In 1943, the chairman of IBM proclaimed: I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. In 1958, a grocers association meeting in Manchester was assured the share held by self-service stores would never top 30%. So much for forecasting. But what, therefore, should we make of the view which condemns the concept of home shopping to a fad of the nerds which will eventually be consigned to the high-tech dustbin? Or even warnings by experts that supermarkets could be excluded from the long-term future of food retailing unless they awake fully to the opportunities of electronic shopping? The multiples have recently given an insight into their plans to tread the electronic highway. Allowing for the inevitability that they must maintain a hint of secrecy to keep long-term strategies under wraps, there is no disguising the caution still expressed in some corners of the high street. Fears about perishability and the unlikelihood of the full shopping experience ever being reproduced successfully on-line, have been around for a long time. But the reality is that the tests are continuing, and enlightened traders are dipping toes into the water as several national schemes take shape. The trick in the forecasting game, therefore, is to predict how large a percentage of the population will become involved, and, more importantly, the total number of products. Will there be as many Internet browsers in 2002 as there are currently viewers of domestic colour TV sets? And will all those high-tech consumers be converted to electronic armchair purchasing? Home shopping will not mean massive alterations to nationwide retailing patterns within the next few years. But provided its promoters make their schemes consumer friendly, ensuring viewers feel sufficiently informed about a product s quality without the need to see and even touch it, the high-tech revolution is set to form a significant part of retailing strategy by the Millenium. But in 2001, there will be...