Continental supplies likely to remain heavy Autumn supply/price crunch picture doubted In a week dominated by news of corporate deals in the UK pigmeat processing sector, more doubt has been cast on forecasts of a sharp downturn in EU pig slaughterings leading to a strong price uptrend. Gossip in the trade is increasingly of continental supplies now likely to remain heavier than had been expected, which would be a mixed blessing for processors in this country. Attention is turning to Spain, a huge producer but not yet a major player in northern European markets. Spanish breeders have continued expanding their herds through the price crisis, and now The Grocer hears of their demand for young stock beginning to interest British live pig exporters. Such anecdotal evidence points to the same conclusion as a recent low key report in MLC's European Market Survey. This noted diminishing price expectations among German traders. "Prices are expected to come under pressure in October," according to the Survey. "During the autumn pig slaughterings will continue to rise seasonally and supplies may well exceed demand." As Germany is by far the biggest EU producer and consumer of pigmeat, it is hard to see how markets anywhere else in Europe can strengthen significantly if the German trade is soft. And as the MLC analysts have pointed out, Dutch production is also higher than a year ago. This doesn't mean a market squeeze is out of the question. Statistical confusion might be obscuring breeding herd contraction in some EU countries apart from the UK, where declining numbers are well documented. Nevertheless, the market signals from a variety of sources including Irish pigmeat exporters are of mixed prospects on the Continent in the short term. And forecasters who six months ago were confidently predicting an autumn supply and price crunch are now having to push it into next year, because autumn has arrived while the squeeze has not. {{MEAT }}