New year assessment of the potato crop has indicated that around 12% either remains in the ground or is affected by waste.
Farmgate prices have only increased marginally so far because at present growers are keen to offload middle to lower grade quality. With a large European crop, packers can also buy abroad. Processors, as the BPC expected, are turning to stocks in Holland, Belgium and Germany. Potato chip imports are up 13% this winter according to the NFU.
But the UK shortfall at six million tonnes means there could be price rises ahead later in the year for best quality product, admitted Rob Burrows, information officer at the British Potato Council.
Trade sources say the spring market was difficult to predict as the Mediterranean new potato season would compete directly with English ware.
This week average growers' prices ex farm for all varieties including potatoes for processing was currently £118.97 tonne compared with £59.03 last year. However at that time the market was in heavy surplus with a 6.8 million tonne crop.
A comparison with an equivalent volume season in 1998 shows the former figure to be around £170/tonne.
Packers have found it difficult to pass on any price increases to multiples with the result that retail tickets have remained steady.
NFU president Ben Gill estimated the total loss to the potato industry this year of £800,000 to £1m.
The Union was particularly concerned about poor storage for Maris Piper resulting in sprouting, which would mean extra processing.
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