Shoppers will have to wait until the end of the year before one of the UK's favourite fish will finally become cheaper again, as salmon prices are not expected to come down until the fourth quarter of 2011.
The price of salmon has surged over the past two years after an outbreak of infectious salmon anaemia in Chile one of the largest producers hit global supplies. Even when Norway stepped up its own production in response, supplies remained tight, leading to continued high prices.
Across Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, Morrisons and Waitrose, the price of a basket of 100 chilled salmon products has gone up 15% over the past 12 months, from an average of £3.76 per item to £4.41, while a basket of 50 frozen salmon products has risen 8%, from £2.66 to £2.88 [BrandView.co.uk].
But Chilean salmon production is now recovering and following an overhaul in local production methods, known as Salmon 2.0 availability of salmon on the world market is set to be markedly better from the fourth quarter of 2011 and through 2012.
"This marks a new cycle for the salmon market," said Rabobank seafood analyst Gorjan Nikolik. Now at their highest for three years, prices were likely to decline over the next three years, he said. The fall would probably not be dramatic as most seafood suppliers and processors had locked in 2011 supply at the end of 2010 at the current high prices. But they would start contracting towards the year-end, he said, starting in the US. "European prices will also be affected due to a partial diversion of Norwegian exports back to the EU, as well as a return of sales of frozen salmon from Chile to the EU market," he added.
Many EU frozen seafood suppliers were already looking to start sourcing Chilean frozen salmon again in order to offer shoppers a lower-cost alternative to fresh, he said.
In the UK and Europe, much frozen salmon imported from Chile ends up going into the discounters.
The price of salmon has surged over the past two years after an outbreak of infectious salmon anaemia in Chile one of the largest producers hit global supplies. Even when Norway stepped up its own production in response, supplies remained tight, leading to continued high prices.
Across Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, Morrisons and Waitrose, the price of a basket of 100 chilled salmon products has gone up 15% over the past 12 months, from an average of £3.76 per item to £4.41, while a basket of 50 frozen salmon products has risen 8%, from £2.66 to £2.88 [BrandView.co.uk].
But Chilean salmon production is now recovering and following an overhaul in local production methods, known as Salmon 2.0 availability of salmon on the world market is set to be markedly better from the fourth quarter of 2011 and through 2012.
"This marks a new cycle for the salmon market," said Rabobank seafood analyst Gorjan Nikolik. Now at their highest for three years, prices were likely to decline over the next three years, he said. The fall would probably not be dramatic as most seafood suppliers and processors had locked in 2011 supply at the end of 2010 at the current high prices. But they would start contracting towards the year-end, he said, starting in the US. "European prices will also be affected due to a partial diversion of Norwegian exports back to the EU, as well as a return of sales of frozen salmon from Chile to the EU market," he added.
Many EU frozen seafood suppliers were already looking to start sourcing Chilean frozen salmon again in order to offer shoppers a lower-cost alternative to fresh, he said.
In the UK and Europe, much frozen salmon imported from Chile ends up going into the discounters.
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