England’s World Cup washout was a damp squib for grocery sales. Using data compiled exclusively for The Grocer, Nick Hughes assesses the damage
What an anticlimax. After the millions spent on jingoistic ad campaigns, patriotic repackaging, football-themed promotions and superstar endorsements, England went and messed up... again. A group of players that began as marketing gold dust ended as damaged goods; upstaged by a referee and an octopus.
As Fabio Capello sifts the rubble searching for answers, the food industry also has a pressing question on its mind. Did England's wretched display undo the 'World Cup effect' on grocery sales?
The simple answer is yes. Exclusive data compiled by Nielsen for The Grocer shows the toll on stores of England being dumped on 27 June. From an initial year-on-year spike of 4.9% [Nielsen w/e 12 June] in the run-up to England's opening game, sales growth plummeted to just 1.2% [w/e 3 July] across the whole of grocery in the week following the Germany débâcle despite coinciding with a heatwave and the final week of Wimbledon. Although scores are not yet in for the tournament's final week, forecasts suggest that, by then, it was game over.
Pulling out weekly data for the multiples alone shows the supermarkets fared little better. From a 5.4% spike in the week before the first game due in no small part to a 70% increase in sales of flatscreen televisions sales in the penultimate week were up a mere 1.4% on the same period in 2009.
If anyone, it was high-street retailers, rather than out-of-town superstores, that appear to have benefited most from the World Cup. High-street stores consistently traded at 5% or more ahead of 2009 levels and pushed 8% growth in the w/e 26 June before sales trailed off, along with the nation's hopes.
Out-of-town stores enjoyed a 5% increase in week one as shoppers stocked up on bulk items, but this dipped to below 2% in week two [w/e 19 June], before recovering to 4% in the week prior to England's one and only knockout game and static after England's exit.
Convenience stores were the whipping boys of the group stages as they struggled against high 2009 comparisons, when a hot spell boosted impulse sales. Growth never ran higher than 3.5% ahead of 2009 levels and dipped to just 2% in week two before recovering slightly during the build-up to that fateful Sunday and joining out-of-towners in the sales depression that followed.
"The World Cup didn't really happen for us," admits Budgens retailer Jonathan James. "We saw an uplift in beer and BBQ but we'd have seen that anyway because of the heatwave."
Just like the hapless squad, brand sales failed to achieve momentum. The initial spike proved to be the zenith for grocery sales. Growth across all categories slowed in week two to just 2.4% (2.3% in the multiples) ahead of the Friday game against Algeria.
This trend was seen most clearly in alcohol, with beers, wines and spirits enjoying a 23% sales uplift in the multiples in week one (15% in total grocery) and beer and lager sales alone surging 51% in the multiples thanks to aggressive multipack deals.
Category growth slowed to 12% (7% in total grocery) in week two but bounced back to 14% in the multiples in the third week and 9% across all formats, buoyed by the heat. But fans couldn't be bothered to drown their sorrows with more booze in the week ending July 3, with sales plummeting to -1.5%
Crisps & snacks was the most consistent category and arguably the biggest winner. Sales rose 11.7% in week one, boosted by strong promotional activity on sharing packs, including a slew of better-than-half-price and £1 deals.
Despite falling back slightly in week two (9%), they surged ahead of England's game against Germany (10.4%), with sharing bags alone adding £3m in incremental sales. The category also grew £4m in the week England went home, with impulse buys seeing a 38% growth.
Some of this success was in the face of considerable adversity.
Pringles overcame the embarrassment of having Nicolas Anelka (sent home in disgrace) and Peter Crouch (total playing time: 17 minutes) fronting its ad campaign to post a 54% sales increase in week three, bettered only by Doritos, which enjoyed 73% growth.
And with sales growth of 16%, even England's early exit couldn't halt McCoy's sales of limited-edition Chicken Winger and Sausage Striker variants, according to Nick Stuart, commercial manager of brand owner UBUK.
"People continued to watch the tournament unfold, so retailers and manufacturers continued to see significant extra sales of sharing packs and multipacks generated from the social occasions that the remaining games created," he said. "The final game alone had 20 million people watching it in the UK."
And it wasn't just the big boys. Burts' director Jonty White reports 500% sales growth in Tesco, which ran a £1 deal on Burts sharing bags through the tournament. "The World Cup's been very good for us," he says. "The weather also made a difference but overall it's been incredibly positive."
Booze and crisps aside, it was mixed news for food and drink. Soft drinks sales began strongly with 10% growth across all channels in week one, led by colas and juice drinks [Nielsen]. Although growth slowed to 5.5% in week two, it swelled again in week three (12%) due in part to the hot weather.
With energy drink sales remaining strong throughout the opening rounds despite Wayne Rooney playing like he'd hydrated on stout rather than the Powerade he fronted the fizz went out of soft drinks along with the England team and year-on-year sales were down 1%.
Confectionery, like England, struggled through most of the tournament. Sales were up just 1.5% in the first week but improved in week two (2.5%) thanks to promotions on sharing packs and the uplift generated by Father's Day.
Growth remained above 2% in week three, with multipacks enjoying significant growth thanks to heavy promotion by Mars, Galaxy and Cadbury Flake in particular, and even climbed after England went out, improving the y-o-y performance by 6%. But confectionery's lacklustre opening was hardly surprising, given the early heatwave.
More surprising was a muted performance for weather-sensitive BBQ products. One of the biggest winners during the Germany World Cup in 2006 hitting double-digit growth as British temperatures soared struggled to match that performance in 2010. Fresh food sales, which include burgers and sausages, rose by 4.2% in the run-up to the first England game, but fell back to 2.5% as temperament changed markedly.
And though Brits fired up the barbies, they don't seem to have been stocking up on burger buns, as sales of bakery products ran below last year's levels throughout.
The beautiful game also had little effect on frozen in the opening fortnight but the arrival of the sun energised sales in week three with 4% growth driven by ice cream. Sales of handheld ice creams alone rose 20% across all formats, although growth melted away to 4% after England's exit.
"It's difficult to pinpoint what has driven growth," says Charlotte Hambling, senior marketing manager for R&R Ice Cream. "The World Cup has been a factor but most of the fluctuations are down to weather and promotions."
What an anticlimax. After the millions spent on jingoistic ad campaigns, patriotic repackaging, football-themed promotions and superstar endorsements, England went and messed up... again. A group of players that began as marketing gold dust ended as damaged goods; upstaged by a referee and an octopus.
As Fabio Capello sifts the rubble searching for answers, the food industry also has a pressing question on its mind. Did England's wretched display undo the 'World Cup effect' on grocery sales?
The simple answer is yes. Exclusive data compiled by Nielsen for The Grocer shows the toll on stores of England being dumped on 27 June. From an initial year-on-year spike of 4.9% [Nielsen w/e 12 June] in the run-up to England's opening game, sales growth plummeted to just 1.2% [w/e 3 July] across the whole of grocery in the week following the Germany débâcle despite coinciding with a heatwave and the final week of Wimbledon. Although scores are not yet in for the tournament's final week, forecasts suggest that, by then, it was game over.
Pulling out weekly data for the multiples alone shows the supermarkets fared little better. From a 5.4% spike in the week before the first game due in no small part to a 70% increase in sales of flatscreen televisions sales in the penultimate week were up a mere 1.4% on the same period in 2009.
If anyone, it was high-street retailers, rather than out-of-town superstores, that appear to have benefited most from the World Cup. High-street stores consistently traded at 5% or more ahead of 2009 levels and pushed 8% growth in the w/e 26 June before sales trailed off, along with the nation's hopes.
Out-of-town stores enjoyed a 5% increase in week one as shoppers stocked up on bulk items, but this dipped to below 2% in week two [w/e 19 June], before recovering to 4% in the week prior to England's one and only knockout game and static after England's exit.
Convenience stores were the whipping boys of the group stages as they struggled against high 2009 comparisons, when a hot spell boosted impulse sales. Growth never ran higher than 3.5% ahead of 2009 levels and dipped to just 2% in week two before recovering slightly during the build-up to that fateful Sunday and joining out-of-towners in the sales depression that followed.
"The World Cup didn't really happen for us," admits Budgens retailer Jonathan James. "We saw an uplift in beer and BBQ but we'd have seen that anyway because of the heatwave."
Just like the hapless squad, brand sales failed to achieve momentum. The initial spike proved to be the zenith for grocery sales. Growth across all categories slowed in week two to just 2.4% (2.3% in the multiples) ahead of the Friday game against Algeria.
This trend was seen most clearly in alcohol, with beers, wines and spirits enjoying a 23% sales uplift in the multiples in week one (15% in total grocery) and beer and lager sales alone surging 51% in the multiples thanks to aggressive multipack deals.
Category growth slowed to 12% (7% in total grocery) in week two but bounced back to 14% in the multiples in the third week and 9% across all formats, buoyed by the heat. But fans couldn't be bothered to drown their sorrows with more booze in the week ending July 3, with sales plummeting to -1.5%
Crisps & snacks was the most consistent category and arguably the biggest winner. Sales rose 11.7% in week one, boosted by strong promotional activity on sharing packs, including a slew of better-than-half-price and £1 deals.
Despite falling back slightly in week two (9%), they surged ahead of England's game against Germany (10.4%), with sharing bags alone adding £3m in incremental sales. The category also grew £4m in the week England went home, with impulse buys seeing a 38% growth.
Some of this success was in the face of considerable adversity.
Pringles overcame the embarrassment of having Nicolas Anelka (sent home in disgrace) and Peter Crouch (total playing time: 17 minutes) fronting its ad campaign to post a 54% sales increase in week three, bettered only by Doritos, which enjoyed 73% growth.
And with sales growth of 16%, even England's early exit couldn't halt McCoy's sales of limited-edition Chicken Winger and Sausage Striker variants, according to Nick Stuart, commercial manager of brand owner UBUK.
"People continued to watch the tournament unfold, so retailers and manufacturers continued to see significant extra sales of sharing packs and multipacks generated from the social occasions that the remaining games created," he said. "The final game alone had 20 million people watching it in the UK."
And it wasn't just the big boys. Burts' director Jonty White reports 500% sales growth in Tesco, which ran a £1 deal on Burts sharing bags through the tournament. "The World Cup's been very good for us," he says. "The weather also made a difference but overall it's been incredibly positive."
Booze and crisps aside, it was mixed news for food and drink. Soft drinks sales began strongly with 10% growth across all channels in week one, led by colas and juice drinks [Nielsen]. Although growth slowed to 5.5% in week two, it swelled again in week three (12%) due in part to the hot weather.
With energy drink sales remaining strong throughout the opening rounds despite Wayne Rooney playing like he'd hydrated on stout rather than the Powerade he fronted the fizz went out of soft drinks along with the England team and year-on-year sales were down 1%.
Confectionery, like England, struggled through most of the tournament. Sales were up just 1.5% in the first week but improved in week two (2.5%) thanks to promotions on sharing packs and the uplift generated by Father's Day.
Growth remained above 2% in week three, with multipacks enjoying significant growth thanks to heavy promotion by Mars, Galaxy and Cadbury Flake in particular, and even climbed after England went out, improving the y-o-y performance by 6%. But confectionery's lacklustre opening was hardly surprising, given the early heatwave.
More surprising was a muted performance for weather-sensitive BBQ products. One of the biggest winners during the Germany World Cup in 2006 hitting double-digit growth as British temperatures soared struggled to match that performance in 2010. Fresh food sales, which include burgers and sausages, rose by 4.2% in the run-up to the first England game, but fell back to 2.5% as temperament changed markedly.
And though Brits fired up the barbies, they don't seem to have been stocking up on burger buns, as sales of bakery products ran below last year's levels throughout.
The beautiful game also had little effect on frozen in the opening fortnight but the arrival of the sun energised sales in week three with 4% growth driven by ice cream. Sales of handheld ice creams alone rose 20% across all formats, although growth melted away to 4% after England's exit.
"It's difficult to pinpoint what has driven growth," says Charlotte Hambling, senior marketing manager for R&R Ice Cream. "The World Cup has been a factor but most of the fluctuations are down to weather and promotions."
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