Canned foods, worth £1.7bn, is growing at less than 1%. Leading growth sectors are fish, soup and baked beans, but hot meats, fruit and tomatoes are underperforming.
Growth is due to increasing average prices this year - a 0.8% increase adding £12m to the category.
As the market is now saturated, with 99.5% of the population purchasing canned foods, further growth must come from encouraging existing buyers to buy more or through price increases justified by premiumisation.
One notable effect is that consumers are buying more on each trip - and making fewer trips. This reflects an increased use of promotions which encourage consumers to make bigger purchases.
Canned fish is the largest sector with a 21.5% share. The market has survived some significant price increases, particularly in tuna, which were driven by supply chain factors. Consumers very quickly resumed purchasing at earlier volumes, because the category is a staple.
Despite various attempts to introduce value-added packs, the number of buyers is now slightly in decline. Growth has come through encouraging consumers to buy more per trip, and at a higher price than before.
Tinned soup has lost buyers this year but consumers are buying more per trip. This was the result of a big increase in two-for-£1 promotions. Overall, however, prices were stable.
Baked beans accounts for 13.4% of canned food sales and sales have risen by 3.6%, driven by substantial price increases. These increases have not discouraged households from buying baked beans, because penetration remains consistent at 91%.
In terms of retailer share of trade, it is the retailers attracting the less affluent consumers that are over-trading in canned foods. Most notably, the discounters and Kwik Save have a share of trade more than 70% greater than their total grocery share.
Andrew Russell , TNS Worldpanel
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