The persistently “stifling” effects of the post-Brexit trade deal between the UK and EU has led to significant drops in both imports and exports, new research has revealed.
Total UK exports to the bloc fell by 27% from 2021 – when the trade deal came into force – to 2023, according to a new report by the Centre for Business Prosperity at Aston University, titled Unbound: UK Trade Post Brexit.
Imports also fell, by 32%, while the variety of goods exported slipped by 33%, revealed the study, which drew on official HMRC import/export data.
The agrifood sectors registered “the most significant adverse Brexit impact”, with exports of vegetable products (down 68.5%), edible fruit and nuts (down 65.3%), cereals (down 58.8%) and seeds and fruits (down 56.6%) particularly hard hit.
Fish, dairy products, meat and fish preparations, confectionery and tobacco also saw export reductions of 30% to 50%.
On the import side, agricultural goods varieties showed an average drop of 4.8%, but some goods declined drastically, such as fish (down 51.2%) cereals (down 21.6%), dairy products (down 37.5%) and meat and edible offal (down 33.8%).
The agrifood sector’s significant declines had been disproportionately driven by post-Brexit sanitary and phytosanitary measures, added the report, which called for a targeted approach by the new Labour government in talks with the EU to “alleviate some of these barriers, boosting trade and stabilising supply chains”.
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This strategy would not only benefit large industries but also support SMEs, which were particularly vulnerable to the disruptions caused by Brexit, it said.
The potential divergence in regulatory standards between the UK and the EU “had created significant trade barriers, increasing costs and complicating market access for businesses”, the report pointed out.
One effective strategy could be to negotiate mutual recognition agreements in key sectors. These agreements would enable both the UK and the EU to accept each other’s regulatory standards, thus alleviating the burden of dual compliance for UK companies, it added.
Border checks delayed for extra six months
The report’s findings indicated a “decoupling of the UK for the key EU final goods markets, accompanied by a shift in UK supply chains toward geographically closer EU trading partners for exports and smaller countries for imports”, said report co-author Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo of Aston University.
“This shift raises concerns and underscores the urgent need for a strategic reconfiguration of UK supply chains to maintain competitiveness,” he added.
Lead author Professor Jun Du, meanwhile, said the free trade agreement had “introduced substantial barriers and there are ongoing and marked declines in the value and variety of UK exports and imports”.
Without “urgent policy interventions”, the UK’s economic position and place in the global market “will continue to weaken”, she added.
The report’s publication comes as planned checks on medium-risk EU fruit & veg imported into the UK were delayed this week from 1 January to 1 July 2025 – marking the third time the checks have been delayed.
Several commodity groups, including apples and pears, have also been reclassified from medium to low risk, facilitating their free movement from the EU, Switzerland and Liechtenstein, starting 30 January 2025.
Fresh Produce Consortium CEO Nigel Jenney – who had lobbied the government extensively for the changes – hailed the move to “heed the industry’s concerns” over the checks, which he said would ease the burden on businesses and customers alike.
Jenney estimated the changes would exempt a staggering “80% of all fruit & vegetables from Europe” from the new border checks, significantly reducing regulatory hurdles for the industry.
But while celebrating the “landmark achievement”, Jenney emphasised “we still have a long way to go”, in tackling post-Brexit trade barriers.
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“We need control points to be fully authorised and available by 1 July and at the same time we need authorised operator status available and effective by the go-live date, which will minimise the cost to industry and to hard-pressed consumers,” Jenney said.
“In addition, we hope and believe the new government will begin to dismantle the fundamentally flawed BTOM strategy of the previous government, which continues to impact the industry badly in the flower and plant sector. Not only is it eye-wateringly expensive, it is simply not sustainable,” he added.
“If the previous government had listened to the industry many years ago, we could have a much more effective border solution without the huge, scandalous waste of taxpayers’ money building Sevington and many other facilities that are unnecessary and unaffordable.”
Elsewhere, the Association of Independent Meat Suppliers this week urged the government to negotiate a veterinary agreement with the EU as an urgent priority.
’Inconsistent’ vet controls
The failure of consistency in veterinary controls and the inaccuracy of certification processes post-Brexit had left UK businesses at risk of economic loss, waste, and an increasingly unmanageable burden of bureaucracy, it claimed.
Since Brexit, the UK’s Border Control Posts (BCPs) had exhibited wide variability in how veterinary controls were applied, with individual veterinary decisions “creating inconsistent”, AIMS said.
This had exposed importers to unnecessary risks, with different standards being enforced across BCPs.
“The situation is untenable,” said Jason Aldiss, head of external affairs at AIMS. “We are seeing a complete failure in the consistency of veterinary controls, which is compounded by the inaccuracy of the manual, outdated export certification system. Errors in veterinary certification are causing substantial losses for the industry, and without immediate action, these inefficiencies will continue to destabilise the meat sector.”
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