A much better-than-expected olive this autumn in key Mediterranean producers could finally bring an end to the record-high olive oil prices seen over the past two years.
Olive oil suppliers are seeing a “light at the end of the tunnel” with producers across Europe expecting a bumper harvest in the upcoming season, according to Filippo Berio, one of the UK’s biggest olive oil companies.
Spain, the world’s largest olive oil producer, looks set to have a good harvest in the 2024/2025 upcoming season, which would “rebase the market”, said Filippo Berio UK MD Walter Zanre.
Based on farmers’ feedback in the southern European nation, which has been severely affected by extreme drought episodes in recent years, the next Spanish harvest could be 1.4 million tonnes (versus 850,000 tonnes last year).
International Olive Oil Council production estimates now show an improved harvesting season for most producing countries, including Spain, Portugal, Greece, Turkey and Tunisia.
Greece supply is now expected to significantly shoot up compared with last year, from 150,000 tonnes to 280,000 tonnes, as is Portugal’s, from 130,000 tonnes to 150,000 tonnes.
In Turkey, which much like Spain and Italy has also suffered greatly from adverse weather conditions, production is expected to rise from 120,000 tonnes last year to 270,000 tonnes in the upcoming season.
The only country set for a supply decrease is Italy, with forecasts pointing to a drop from 300,000 tonnes last year to 220,000 tonnes this year.
Total global production is now forecast to be 3.13 million tonnes, a boost from 2.28 million tonnes in 2023/2024.
This could finally bring an end to the sky-high olive oil prices seen in supermarkets across the UK in the past year.
Average prices of own-label olive oil (one litre) across the mults were up 34% to £7.68, or £1.95, year on year, according to The Grocer’s Key Value Items (KVI) tracker.
Read more: Has oil hit its peak? Edible oils category report 2024
Olive oil suppliers are still facing prices that are about 20% higher than last year for many of the key European regions, according to the latest data from the IOC.
But in Spain, which produces 45% of the world’s olive oil and 70% of the EU’s, things are looking up.
“It looks like the initial supplies of new season extra virgin olive oil will be priced in the range of €5,000-€6,000 per tonne”, said Zanre.
This would constitute a significant decrease from the average €7,800 per tonne that was most recently recorded by the IOC and the record highs of €9,000 per tonne seen earlier in the year.
“With the arrival of the new season oils, shelf prices will reduce for consumers”, Zanre said. “But this won’t be until December/January as the new oil has to work its way through the supply chain”, he noted.
“A stream of new season olive oil from Spain will not arrive until November. By the time it’s delivered to bottlers and shipped … it means hitting UK shelves in January.”
“However, there is now light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.
No comments yet