The award for glass half-full interpretation of the year goes to the retail analysts at Peel Hunt. They have suggested a 12 December general election will lead to a “resurgent consumer, free from uncertainty, two weeks ahead of Christmas”.
Sadly, the glass half empty – and surely more likely – interpretation is that a December election will prolong the uncertainty for retailers and suppliers that has stifled consumer confidence for months now.
As one source put it, only half-jokingly: “The election creates uncertainty about whether there could be even more uncertainty.”
Sadly this rings true.The threat of a no-deal – which food and drink businesses feared most – has been removed, or at least kicked down the road, thanks to the EU’s “flextension”. But with just two shopping weekends between the election and Christmas, there will be precious little time for any party to lift the shadow of uncertainty that is currently draining consumer confidence.
“The general election is undoubtedly going to have a negative impact because of the continuing uncertainty over Brexit and what happens next,” says Patrick O’Brien, UK research director at Global Data.
While the possibility of another hung parliament raises the spectre of yet more deadlock in parliament, a Boris Johnson landslide will raise fears that a no-deal, whether at the end of January or at the end of a transition period, may be back on the table.
A Labour victory? Well, after the last election anything is possible.
Meanwhile, having been led up the hill for a third time, suppliers and retailers who have spent millions stockpiling must be wishing they hadn’t bothered.
As BRC CEO Helen Dickinson puts it: “The UK cannot teeter on the edge of Brexit indefinitely.”
You can almost hear the festive cry of “oh yes it can,” from Nigel Farage and his cronies as they bang the war drums and get set to turn the screw on Johnson – who did not, after all, choose the ditch option.
There is some good news. Nothing, neither Brexit nor politicians turning up on the doorstep on a dark cold night, will stop Brits tucking into their food and drink at Christmas.
Spend on some luxury purchases and non-food items may be in jeopardy, but turkey and vegan nut roasts will fly off shelves regardless of the cold wind of uncertainty. And at least there will be no shortages of EU-imported fruit & veg to go with it.
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