Kingfisher? Yellowhammer? It’ll take more than rare birds to help industry through Brexit

The government will soon be running out of rare bird names for its no-deal Brexit planning.

Last week we had Operation Kingfisher, the as-yet-elusive plan that will supposedly bail out businesses hit by cash flow problems in the event of us crashing out.

This weekend it was the turn of Operation Yellowhammer to dominate the headlines. A leaked report in the Sunday Times has shown the government is anticipating major forecast shortages of food, fuel and severe disruption at the ports, in the event of no-deal.

Birdwatchers out there will, of course, know the yellowhammer is famous for its song, which sounds similar to the phrase “a little bit of bread and no cheese” – which may prove dreadfully ironic if this report comes to anything like fruition. Among the grim reading is its estimate that the no-deal disruption to ports would last for three months before improving to “around 50% to 70%” of capacity – almost as if a 30% to 50 % fall is some sort of silver lining.

Just as bad is the prediction of fuel shortages, which not only threaten to make the crisis of 2000 look like small fry in comparison, but would threaten imports from Europe and everyday food suppliers.

Again, hardline Brexiteers have been quick to brand the report yet another example of Project Fear – or, as Michael Gove refers to it, an “old report”.

Read more: FDF calls for relaxation of rules to aid no-deal planning

Yet Gove’s definition of old doesn’t provide too many crumbs of comfort. He stresses the documents represent “absolutely the worst-case scenario” predicted by government for a no-deal, although this is hotly disputed by the Sunday Times which claims it is based on the most likely aftershocks.

And Gove adds we should be reassured because “in the past three weeks” there has been a “significant acceleration” of planning for Brexit “deal or no-deal”.

Whilst this comes from one of the few ministers who appeared to have grasped the disastrous consequences of a no-deal to industry, the notion that things will be ok because of three weeks of progress will surely not save many sleepless nights.

The sad reality, of course, is that Operation Yellowhammer doesn’t really tell us anything new. It’s mostly exactly the same warnings as have been raised by industry leaders for three years, now returning with a vengeance as the 31 October deadline looms.

But just as with last week’s Operation Kingfisher, the details of which the food industry is still in the dark about, the big reveal is that the government’s own reports in Yellowhammer predict leaving the EU without a deal could leave the country in chaos – even if it is their ‘worst-case scenario’.

Unless you follow Operation Dodo, one would have thought any move that carries a risk of major food shortages, a petrol crisis, shortages of medical supplies, gridlock at ports and airways and a return of a hard border in Northern Ireland, might be a risk not worth taking.