New research shows that 35% of all UK households will be single-person within 15 years. Siân Harrington looks at the implications for supermarkets
More than one in three UK households will comprise people living alone in 15 years’ time, according to a new study undertaken by the Institute for Public Policy Research and sponsored by Unilever. The Family Report 2005 paints a stark picture of the growing polarisation of society and shows that the increase in single-person households is contributing to a rise in inequality.
Gavin Neath, chairman of Unilever UK, says: “By 2021, 35% of all households in the UK are expected to be solo livers. This demographic shift is going to have a significant impact on our communities and their social dynamics.”
Yet, despite the fact that the shift to singledom has huge implications for a grocery business currently geared to the big family shop and volume sales, there has been surprisingly little debate about what it means for the food industry.
Helen Lo, head of communications for Unilever Ice Cream & Frozen Food, says: “This is a fundamental change that has clear ramifications for us as a business, as an industry and as a society. We have to ask whether we are geared up for it.”
At the moment, the short answer is: no. Clare Scott, a director at brand consultancy Added Value, comments: “It’s like the grey market; there’s lots of talk about it but it’s an attitude of ‘oh yes, this is what is happening but let’s completely ignore it’. People are comfortable talking about families and couples. Responses to date have been naïve. Supermarkets holding single evenings - is that the best they can do?”
Hopefully not, but what exactly should they be doing?
First, they need to identify some of the trends that are being driven by single people. Singles are more likely to go out in the evening and spend more on alcohol and communications, for instance, benefiting sharing and entertaining trends.
“We will see more bundling of products. As fewer people are dedicated to the household and the background pieces of life, we will see a greater rise in offers such as dinner party kits,” predicts Richard McKenzie, director of OC&C’s retail practice.
There is a huge trend in ‘girlie’ suppers, adds Scott. In this group health is important, but it is balanced with indulgence.
Maureen Johnson, chief executive of WPP-owned The Store, agrees: “If you take these demographic trends and couple them with increased concern over wellbeing, natural ingredients and food safety, together with an even greater need for convenience than we are seeing today, we would expect greater demand for fresh food-to-go and convenient meal solutions that combine fresh and ambient ingredients.”
Prepared salad supplier Florette has already developed smaller 120g packs and single-serving salad snack bowls. MD Mark Newton says: “We focus on all demographic groups and we are very much aware of growth at both ends of the singles market - the urban-based 20 to 30-year-old age groups and the older consumer as well.
“We have been noting the widening of this section of the market for some time. Just as an indication, the market for bowls and trays grew by more than 20% in value sales, well ahead of the overall market for prepared salads, which grew by slightly more than 2% [ACNielsen 52 w/e September 11, 2005].”
As far as the supply chain is concerned, the shift to single consumers throws up similar challenges to the shift to convenience. “There will be more frequent, smaller shops. Suppliers will have to break bulk earlier and there will be higher handling costs,” says McKenzie.
Lo adds: “For our brands there are challenges in terms of pack sizes, promotions on offer, portion sizes and also the information people want. As a mum with a family you need different information than single people, who may be more concerned about environmental issues or pack design, for example.”
This trend could bring ranging problems with the different pack sizes and SKUs, says David Jago, editorial director of Mintel’s global new products database.
Scott adds: “Some categories face taboos, such as drinking in the home. Single people don’t want smaller servings of alcohol, but drinks companies may need to look at how to make it permissible to have an alcoholic treat on your own at home.”
The greatest increase in the number of single-person households has been among men under 65, with numbers tripling since 1971. According to David Anthony of Consumer Insights, just less than 66% of all single households are currently male.
“Because single households are predominantly male, they shop like men,” he says. “It may be blindingly obvious, but the question then is, ‘how do men grocery shop differently from women?’ They are much more routine and habit driven, 40% take no notice of special offers except on their usual brand (compared with 29% of women), 79% know exactly what they are going to buy before they start shopping (compared with 66% of women).
“As the number of single households increases and if they remain predominantly male, this has major ramifications for store layouts, gondola ends, promotions of all types, loyalty cards and so on.”
Another issue for this type of shopper is that the cheap deals on food are generally associated with large quantities. While affluent single consumers may have the money, car and storage space to buy in bulk, this is certainly not the case with the poorer segments of society and particularly older single consumers. A bogof may still be relevant, but will a three-for-two offer on family shampoo?
“Retailers and manufacturers will have to look at how to incentivise people to stay loyal. At the moment it is very family-orientated - if you spend £400 in Sainsbury you get rewarded,” says Scott.
Then there is the rise of ready meals. Most people in the focus groups thought people living alone were more likely to be taken into account in product design, for example ready meals for one, but again this is dependent on income. Products designed for singletons are often half the size and double the cost. “You could say that one of the problems that Iceland has had is that it promotes value deals and big pack sizes, but most of its customers are relatively old and likely to be single,” argues McKenzie.
“This poorer end is ignored by the big grocers and should be the domain of Iceland and Kwik Save, but they have failed to pick up on it appropriately. There is opportunity there if they can refocus.”
Johnson adds: “We are predicting further increases in the number of shoppers carrying out a shopping mission specifically to shop for bargains and special offers.
“This will be fuelled by growth in the new poor as the pension crisis kicks in. It bodes well for the discounters, in particular those that have been reinforcing real value for money, as Aldi has been doing recently.”
So the future is about smaller stores, different communication, new pack sizes, better value for money, more regular shopping. At the moment, the industry is not taking the rise of the singles seriously. Maybe it will when it realises how much of its customer base it risks alienating.
A single world
>> growing trend towards living alone
Overall, between 1971 and 2004 the percentage of the population living in single person households has more than doubled, from 6% to 13%. While Britain’s population has grown by 5% since 1975, the number of one-person households has risen by 31%. Up to the 1970s the vast majority of people living by themselves were elderly, particularly widowed women. This has changed dramatically. Although the elderly still live alone in the greatest numbers, the number of singletons below pension age has seen most accelerated growth.
So far, the growth in people living alone has been concentrated among more affluent people and those aged 25-44. Within this band, more than 10% live alone compared with 2% in 1973 - 15% of these are men and 8% are women.
While 20% of people living alone come from the top 20% of earners [DWP 2005], on average people living by themselves are less well off and less likely to be in work than the general population.
Urban centres have the most single households, with London leading at 38% followed by Glasgow, Brighton and Manchester. Scotland has the overall highest proportion of single households at 33%. Census/ONS figures show 15% classified as white British lived alone in 2001, 25% mixed race, 28% black Caribbeans and 7% Bangladeshis.
What singletons eat
>> By percentage of Total grocery spend
Totalaged 18-44aged 45+
Categoryspend %indexspend %indexspend %index
Frozen dessert19.89236416.8100
Frozen fish20.0933.77916.397
Frozen pizza13.1616.21326.840
Frozen potato products15.4723.88111.669
Added value potato products10.3483.370742
Frozen red meat12.0563.983848
Green veg18.8874.18714.788
Prepared veg16.9795.110911.971
Poultry11.4534.494742
Ready meals26.5123510621.5128
Savoury bakery15.0703.26811.870
Snacks13.7645.31138.349
Veg protein18.8878.317710.663
Hand-held multipacks17.4813.37014.184
Dessert ice cream22.61054.39118.2108
The index takes 100 points as its base
Source: TNS superpanel
More than one in three UK households will comprise people living alone in 15 years’ time, according to a new study undertaken by the Institute for Public Policy Research and sponsored by Unilever. The Family Report 2005 paints a stark picture of the growing polarisation of society and shows that the increase in single-person households is contributing to a rise in inequality.
Gavin Neath, chairman of Unilever UK, says: “By 2021, 35% of all households in the UK are expected to be solo livers. This demographic shift is going to have a significant impact on our communities and their social dynamics.”
Yet, despite the fact that the shift to singledom has huge implications for a grocery business currently geared to the big family shop and volume sales, there has been surprisingly little debate about what it means for the food industry.
Helen Lo, head of communications for Unilever Ice Cream & Frozen Food, says: “This is a fundamental change that has clear ramifications for us as a business, as an industry and as a society. We have to ask whether we are geared up for it.”
At the moment, the short answer is: no. Clare Scott, a director at brand consultancy Added Value, comments: “It’s like the grey market; there’s lots of talk about it but it’s an attitude of ‘oh yes, this is what is happening but let’s completely ignore it’. People are comfortable talking about families and couples. Responses to date have been naïve. Supermarkets holding single evenings - is that the best they can do?”
Hopefully not, but what exactly should they be doing?
First, they need to identify some of the trends that are being driven by single people. Singles are more likely to go out in the evening and spend more on alcohol and communications, for instance, benefiting sharing and entertaining trends.
“We will see more bundling of products. As fewer people are dedicated to the household and the background pieces of life, we will see a greater rise in offers such as dinner party kits,” predicts Richard McKenzie, director of OC&C’s retail practice.
There is a huge trend in ‘girlie’ suppers, adds Scott. In this group health is important, but it is balanced with indulgence.
Maureen Johnson, chief executive of WPP-owned The Store, agrees: “If you take these demographic trends and couple them with increased concern over wellbeing, natural ingredients and food safety, together with an even greater need for convenience than we are seeing today, we would expect greater demand for fresh food-to-go and convenient meal solutions that combine fresh and ambient ingredients.”
Prepared salad supplier Florette has already developed smaller 120g packs and single-serving salad snack bowls. MD Mark Newton says: “We focus on all demographic groups and we are very much aware of growth at both ends of the singles market - the urban-based 20 to 30-year-old age groups and the older consumer as well.
“We have been noting the widening of this section of the market for some time. Just as an indication, the market for bowls and trays grew by more than 20% in value sales, well ahead of the overall market for prepared salads, which grew by slightly more than 2% [ACNielsen 52 w/e September 11, 2005].”
As far as the supply chain is concerned, the shift to single consumers throws up similar challenges to the shift to convenience. “There will be more frequent, smaller shops. Suppliers will have to break bulk earlier and there will be higher handling costs,” says McKenzie.
Lo adds: “For our brands there are challenges in terms of pack sizes, promotions on offer, portion sizes and also the information people want. As a mum with a family you need different information than single people, who may be more concerned about environmental issues or pack design, for example.”
This trend could bring ranging problems with the different pack sizes and SKUs, says David Jago, editorial director of Mintel’s global new products database.
Scott adds: “Some categories face taboos, such as drinking in the home. Single people don’t want smaller servings of alcohol, but drinks companies may need to look at how to make it permissible to have an alcoholic treat on your own at home.”
The greatest increase in the number of single-person households has been among men under 65, with numbers tripling since 1971. According to David Anthony of Consumer Insights, just less than 66% of all single households are currently male.
“Because single households are predominantly male, they shop like men,” he says. “It may be blindingly obvious, but the question then is, ‘how do men grocery shop differently from women?’ They are much more routine and habit driven, 40% take no notice of special offers except on their usual brand (compared with 29% of women), 79% know exactly what they are going to buy before they start shopping (compared with 66% of women).
“As the number of single households increases and if they remain predominantly male, this has major ramifications for store layouts, gondola ends, promotions of all types, loyalty cards and so on.”
Another issue for this type of shopper is that the cheap deals on food are generally associated with large quantities. While affluent single consumers may have the money, car and storage space to buy in bulk, this is certainly not the case with the poorer segments of society and particularly older single consumers. A bogof may still be relevant, but will a three-for-two offer on family shampoo?
“Retailers and manufacturers will have to look at how to incentivise people to stay loyal. At the moment it is very family-orientated - if you spend £400 in Sainsbury you get rewarded,” says Scott.
Then there is the rise of ready meals. Most people in the focus groups thought people living alone were more likely to be taken into account in product design, for example ready meals for one, but again this is dependent on income. Products designed for singletons are often half the size and double the cost. “You could say that one of the problems that Iceland has had is that it promotes value deals and big pack sizes, but most of its customers are relatively old and likely to be single,” argues McKenzie.
“This poorer end is ignored by the big grocers and should be the domain of Iceland and Kwik Save, but they have failed to pick up on it appropriately. There is opportunity there if they can refocus.”
Johnson adds: “We are predicting further increases in the number of shoppers carrying out a shopping mission specifically to shop for bargains and special offers.
“This will be fuelled by growth in the new poor as the pension crisis kicks in. It bodes well for the discounters, in particular those that have been reinforcing real value for money, as Aldi has been doing recently.”
So the future is about smaller stores, different communication, new pack sizes, better value for money, more regular shopping. At the moment, the industry is not taking the rise of the singles seriously. Maybe it will when it realises how much of its customer base it risks alienating.
A single world
>> growing trend towards living alone
Overall, between 1971 and 2004 the percentage of the population living in single person households has more than doubled, from 6% to 13%. While Britain’s population has grown by 5% since 1975, the number of one-person households has risen by 31%. Up to the 1970s the vast majority of people living by themselves were elderly, particularly widowed women. This has changed dramatically. Although the elderly still live alone in the greatest numbers, the number of singletons below pension age has seen most accelerated growth.
So far, the growth in people living alone has been concentrated among more affluent people and those aged 25-44. Within this band, more than 10% live alone compared with 2% in 1973 - 15% of these are men and 8% are women.
While 20% of people living alone come from the top 20% of earners [DWP 2005], on average people living by themselves are less well off and less likely to be in work than the general population.
Urban centres have the most single households, with London leading at 38% followed by Glasgow, Brighton and Manchester. Scotland has the overall highest proportion of single households at 33%. Census/ONS figures show 15% classified as white British lived alone in 2001, 25% mixed race, 28% black Caribbeans and 7% Bangladeshis.
What singletons eat
>> By percentage of Total grocery spend
Totalaged 18-44aged 45+
Categoryspend %indexspend %indexspend %index
Frozen dessert19.89236416.8100
Frozen fish20.0933.77916.397
Frozen pizza13.1616.21326.840
Frozen potato products15.4723.88111.669
Added value potato products10.3483.370742
Frozen red meat12.0563.983848
Green veg18.8874.18714.788
Prepared veg16.9795.110911.971
Poultry11.4534.494742
Ready meals26.5123510621.5128
Savoury bakery15.0703.26811.870
Snacks13.7645.31138.349
Veg protein18.8878.317710.663
Hand-held multipacks17.4813.37014.184
Dessert ice cream22.61054.39118.2108
The index takes 100 points as its base
Source: TNS superpanel
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