Christmas dinner is always a major battleground for supermarkets, as they battle to ensure they are consumers’ first choice for all the festive essentials. This year is no different, with ongoing debate as to the impact that food inflation would play on the price of the Christmas dinner.
With retailers going all out for market share, everything from turkeys to sprouts has been placed under scrutiny as numerous ‘cost of Christmas dinner’ studies deliver vastly different results.
Kantar, based on data from the four weeks to 1 December, anticipated the price of Christmas dinner to be 6.5% more expensive this year compared with 2023, at £32.57 on average. Everything in its 11-piece Christmas dinner increased, bar sparkling wine, which was flat at 0%. Notable risers were frozen turkey (up 8.5%), potatoes (16.2%) and cauliflower (14.6%).
It’s findings, however, are at odds with The Grocer’s own more up-to-date research, which shows the great lengths that retailers are going to as they ensure their Christmas dinner deals are more competitive than ever.
The price wars
Unsurprisingly, turkey has been the key pricing battleground, with some lines up to 22% cheaper year on year. Of the 48 fresh and frozen whole turkey lines available in Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s, Waitrose, Aldi, Lidl, Iceland and M&S – 24 were cheaper year on year, by an average of 14.4%, according to The Grocer’s analysis of Assosia data on 10 December.
Seven lines were more expensive year on year, while the remaining 17 turkey products saw no change in price.
This is backed up by two special Christmas-themed baskets in the Grocer 33. The first, dated 2 December, showed a frozen turkey crown was 7% cheaper on average year on year across Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons and Waitrose.
And as the big day approaches, a slew of deals on fresh birds are now becoming available too – with supplies of turkey forecast to be stable this year by producers due to the lack of avian flu issues over the autumn (though there are now some restrictions in the east of England following a handful of cases over the past week).
A fresh free range-equivalent was 8% cheaper in last week’s deluxe Christmas dinner Grocer 33 basket. Overall, the price of a premium Christmas dinner is down by 0.1% year on year, but there was also huge variation in terms of price on the items – and between the supermarkets.
However, it’s a different story for other core Christmas staples, like mince pies, which have been hit by tight supply of key ingredients like butter and sultanas. The Grocer’s analysis of 40 like-for-like lines across the mults and discounters showed that some lines had increased by as much as 40%.
The price of own-label mince pies was up by an average of 15% across Sainsbury’s, Asda, Tesco, Morrisons and Waitrose in the first of our Christmas G33 baskets.
But there are clearly some deals to be had too, with the average price falling by 6.6% on premium own label mince pies in last week’s Grocer 33 basket, after lines were added to multibuy and loyalty promotions, as retailers ramp up value as the big day gets closer.
Budget Christmas dinner
The annual Christmas dinner bundle has always been a key battleground for grocers vying for Christmas number one. While Christmas dinner wars haven’t been as fierce as in previous years, with Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons all yet to unveil offers, they’ve been more competitive than ever with respective offers promising a full turkey dinner for six for under £12.
Aldi fired the first salvo on 12 December with an eight-piece fresh turkey dinner with all the trimmings for £11.45, or £1.91 a head. It is nearly £2 cheaper than Aldi’s package last year, which came in at £13.48 for a Christmas dinner for six, or £2.25 per head. However last year’s offer also included pigs in blankets and red cabbage.
On 18 December, Aldi dropped the price further, unveiling the lowest-priced value Christmas dinner package so far. Feeding six people for a total of £10.80, it consists of a small fresh turkey, stuffing mix, gravy granules, Yorkshire puddings, potatoes, brussels sprouts, carrots and parsnips.
Tesco is currently offering an eight-piece-dinner bundle for £11.05, equivalent to £1.84 a head. That’s 25p cheaper than least year, despite consisting of the same eight products, and once again is only available to Tesco Clubcard holders.
While discounter Lidl’s own eight-piece turkey dinner for six comes in at £11.26, equivalent to £1.87 per person. It is £1.23 cheaper than last year’s.
The price cuts have also continued at premium grocer Booths, which has unveiled its Ultimate Christmas Dinner for eight people for £200. The three-course meal is £20 cheaper than last year’s offer, but does not include that year’s mince pies, coffee or chocolate thins.
Super cheap veg
Veg prices are another staple of the seasonal Christmas wars, and the major multiples have once again slashed the prices on core vegetable lines as part of their seasonal promotions – despite a particularly challenging year for growers – who have been hit by bad weather and increasingly difficult business conditions.
This year it’s been tighter than ever, with a late flurry of offers seeing some lines drop to as little as 8p, as grocers seek to beat their rivals. Further price cuts could be on the cards as Christmas Day draws closer.
As it stands, Aldi and Asda are in the lead, with near-identical offers on five core veg lines, each for 8p. Both had originally matched Sainsbury’s and Tesco in slashing the price of core veg lines to 15p.
However, they slashed prices further after Morrisons announced it would drop the price of four key veg lines to 10p, on 17 December,
It sparked a flurry of promotions as Lidl then dropped its prices from the original offer of 15p to 9p the following day, only for Aldi and Asda to slash theirs by a further penny later that day.
So far Sainsbury’s and Tesco have maintained their original offer of 15p on own label packs of potatoes, carrots, parsnips and brussels sprouts for Nectar Card or Clubcard holders. Sainsbury’s has also cut the price of Swede, White Cabbage and Red Cabbage to 15p, between 18 and 24 December.
While the deals are great for shoppers, many of whom continue to feel the cold fingers of the cost-of-living crisis, The Grocer’s Grace Duncan highlights it could be bad news for farmers, who are concerned such seasonal promotions devalue the product in the eyes of the consumer.
At a time when growers are already under pressure, such deals mask the true cost of production and give shoppers unrealistic expectations as to how much food costs.
“If everybody’s trying to follow suit, then it’s driving down the price of vegetables,” British Growers Association CEO Jack Ward told The Grocer.
Christmas dinner in a box
Overall, demand for Christmas dinner staples in the supermarkets is expected to be strong this year, with research published by AHDB at the start of December reporting 20% of shoppers were planning to eat out of home less this December, while 90% said they would eat in on Christmas Day or at the home of a family member or friend.
But despite this, not everyone is a whizz in the kitchen, with The Times quoting Sainsburys research earlier this month that revealed only one in five hosts will be making every part of Christmas dinner from scratch this year.
The solution to this is a relatively new concept altogether – the one hour (ish) “Christmas dinner in box” which includes a festive turkey and all the trimmings.
The likes of M&S, Sainsbury’s and Cook are all offering variations of this uber-convenient festive meal for four, with prices ranging from £45 to £77.
Sainsbury’s said one of the reasons it was selling a full dinner this year was because Christmas falls on a Wednesday, the Times reported, so many people will be working until the 25th.
“There’s such a big build-up to Christmas, and then on the day you can often spend the whole day in the kitchen,” said Sainsbury’s director of product and innovation Claire Hughes. “I think we have also lost a bit of those cooking skills that we were taught in schools, and there is a lack of confidence.
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